The World Energy Outlook 2000

• Global economic growth is projected to increase by more than 3% pa.
• World primary energy demand is projected to increase by a steady 2% pa from 2000 to 2020 - 57% over 20 years.
• Global CO2 emissions are projected to increase at an average of 2.1% a year to 2020 creating a 60% increase between 1997 and 2020.
• Developing countries will account for more than two thirds of the increase.
• Between 1990 and 2020 CO2 emissions are projected to increase by 73%.
• Fossil fuels will continue to provide 90% of the world's primary energy - oil use will surge from 76m barrels a day to 115 million in 2020 - constituting a 51% increase.
• New renewable energy sources will increase from the current 2% to 3% of total demand.

The World Energy Outlook 2001

• By 2020 115 million barrels of oil a day will be produced with most of the projected growth coming from the transport sector where the potential for replacing oil with other fuel is very limited.
• Oil will retain its position as the single largest source of primary energy to 2020 providing 40% of the world total energy supply.
• Much investment is needed in the oil industry. Major Middle East oil producers will require foreign investment to exploit their oil resources.
• The world has abundant reserves of natural gas and coal and there will be no lack of uranium for nuclear power production in the forseeable future.
• Massive investment in energy infrastructure will be required in the production, transformation, transportation and distribution of energy to meet increased demand. A large proportion of this investment is needed in developing countries however due to the large scale of investment required much of it will be sought from industrialized countries.
• Governments will shape the energy supply landscape. Governments will play a key role in resolving security of supply concerns, in creating appropriate regulatory and market frameworks and in encouraging technology development and deployment. Environmental policies including penalties on carbon emissions will affect energy supply by dampening demand and changing the fuel mix.
• Massive investment will be required to exploit the world's gas reserves to be applied to production facilities and infrastructure to transport gas to market.
• There are close to 1 trillion tonnes of economically recoverable coal reserves, constituting 200 years of production at current rates, however the future of coal supply depends on its environmental acceptability. Almost half of the world's reserves of coal are in OECD countries. Subsidies to the coal industry will remain an important element in some countries.
• Renewable energy has the technical potential to supply significant amounts of the world's energy but under current market conditions the economic potential is much lower. To increase the use of renewables further cost reductions are necessary.

  Although production of primary energy from renewable sources is projected to increase rapidly from 1999 to 2020, their share of total global energy consumption is expected to remain low without determined government interventions.

  In the OECD wind and bioenergy are expected to grow the fastest whilst hydropower is expected to be the most rapid growing renewable energy supply source in developing countries.

  The benefits from using renewable energy sources are environmental protection and security of supply.

• To develop renewable energy resources will require sustained investment in infrastructure. In the OECD investment in renewable energy to achieve a 4% share in electricity generation in 2020 is expected to be $90bn, which constitutes 10% of the total power sector investment over the next 20yrs. If governments made substantial efforts to promote and subsidise renewables, then their share could rise to 9% in 2020, which would require approx $230 bn in investment.

  Renewable energy costs have already fallen but further reductions are necessary if they are to compete with fossil fuels.

• If fossil fuel prices do not increase sharply and if governments do not introduce radical new policies, few resources will be able to compete with fossil fuels in the near term.
• Some technologies such as wind are close to being competitive while others need to see dramatic cost reductions. Competing land use and constraints on dispatchability may limit supply.
• Beyond 2020 the energy mix will depend on technology although production costs will be more important to the long term energy supply outlook than the resource base.
• The extent to which governments encourage technologies that generate low or zero-carbon emissions and the costs involved are key issues in the long term.
• Beyond 2020 the role of renewable energy in the global energy supply is likely to become much more important.

  The main focus of current research is on hydrogen production and use. Hydrogen technology offers the potential of large scale energy supply with minimal environmental impact.

• Governments will play an important role in encouraging technological progress. Technology development and deployment are strongly influenced by government actions, including pricing and taxation policies and direct funding of research . Government policies aimed at reducing the risk of supply disruption or promoting more efficient markets will also affect the long term supply outlook.

The World Energy Outlook 2002