The World Energy Council

• World economic growth is projected to grow at between 2.2-2.7% pa to 2050 with global energy consumption increasing by 58% at best or 176% at worst by that time. (World Energy Council Data (WEC))

• In 1990 developing countries consumed approx 34% of world energy, by 2050 they are projected to consume between 58-66% of world energy. (WEC Data)

• 71% to 100% of the projected energy growth will occur in the developing world to 2050. (WEC)

• World CO2 emissions are projected in the worst case scenario to rise to 15.1 Gtc pa by 2050 constituting a 152% increase on 1990 levels of 6Gtc. At best they are projected to be 5 Gtc by 2050 which would constitute a 16.6% decrease on 1990 levels. (WEC)

• In 1990 fossil fuels accounted for 77.8% of total global primary energy supply, with nuclear energy accounting for 5.6%, hydro 4.4%, traditional biomass 10% and new renewables only 2.2%.

• In the high emission scenario with 176% energy growth to 2050 on 1990 levels new renewables are projected to at best only supply 23% of total energy, with hydro and traditional biomass providing another 8%. At worst new renewables are projected to supply only 15% of total energy with hydro and traditional biomass providing a further 7%.

• If society were ecologically driven with policy makers succeeding in promoting energy efficiency, technology innovation and transfer, non-fossil fuel development and the reduction of institutional barriers creating the lowest energy consumption scenario then :

• In the low emission scenario with the smallest projected energy growth of 58% increase on 1990 levels by 2050 new renewables are projected to at best supply only 27% of total energy with hydro and traditional biomass supplying a further 13%. Under this scenario new renewables are projected to at worst supply only 23% of total energy with hydro and traditional biomass supplying a further 13%.

• There is huge scope however to reduce energy by being more efficient with it - over 60% of primary energy is, in effect wasted, and over 60% of that in end uses.

• However it is important to consider that two billion people in our world do not have access to commercial energy.

• Another consideration is that just over 75% of the world's current primary energy supplies come from fossil fuels and only 2% from from new renewables other than large hydropower.

• Fossil fuels and uranimum sources are vast and technological developments are enabling more and more of them to be exploited.

• The decarbonisation of the fuel mix is likely to be a very protracted process.