*1 (1.6-7C (1.6 to 6.9C = 1.1 to 6.4C at 20-99 relative to 1980-1999. plus approx 0.5C to 1980-1999)) (Temperature changes are expressed as the difference from the period 1980-1999. To express the change relative to the period 1850-1899 add 0.5C) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA p.13 www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP and Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group 11 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,’ M.L.Parry, O.F.Canziani, J.P.Palutikof, P.J.van der Linden and C.E.Hanson, Eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK 7-22 p.11

Our Warming World

*2 http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual

*3 0.8C : the current 5-year trend value is ~0.55 C above the 1951-1980 30-year average. Estimating from the curve, the 1951-1980 average is another 0.25-0.30 C above the 1880-1900 average http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

*4 1.6 to 6.9C = 1.1 to 6.4C at 2099 relative to 1980-1999. (plus approx 0.5C to 1980-1999) (Temperature changes are expressed as the difference from the period 1980-1999. To express the change relative to the period 1850-1899 add 0.5C) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA p.13 www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP and Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group 11 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,’ M.L.Parry, O.F.Canziani, J.P.Palutikof, P.J.van der Linden and C.E.Hanson, Eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK 7-22 p.11

*5 Fig SPM1 Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group 11 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,’ M.L.Parry, O.F.Canziani, J.P.Palutikof, P.J.van der Linden and C.E.Hanson, Eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK 7-22 p.10

*6 Hassol S.J, Correll ,R.W. (2006) ‘Arctic Climate Impact Assessment’ (ACIA 2006) www.acia.uaf.edu in H. J.Schellnhuber et al (eds) (2006) ‘Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change’ Cambridge University Press, February 2006, ISBN 9780521864718 DOI: 10.2277/0521864712 pp 205-213

*7 (Annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions increased from an average 6.4 [6.0 to 6.8] GtC (23.5 [22.0 to 25.0] GtCO2) per year in the 1990’s to 7.2 [6.9 to 7.5] GtC (26.4 [25.3 to 27.5) GtCO2 per year in 2000-2005 (2004 and 2005 data are interim estimates). Carbon dioxide emissions associated with land-use change are estimated to be 1.6 [0.5 to 2.7] GtC (5.9 [1.8 to 9.9] GtCO2 ) per year over the 1990s, although these estimates have a large uncertaintly.)( 7.2/8.8 and land use 1.6/8.8 re about 80%/20% NB Fossil carbon dioxide emissions include those from the production, distribution and consumption of fossil fuels and as a by-product from cement production.) Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP pp.2-3

*8 800,000 years : Dieter Lüthi, Martine Le Flok, Bernhard Bereiter, Thomas Blunier, Jean-Marc Barnola, Urs Siegenthaler, Dominique Raynaud, Jean Jouzel, Hubertus Fischer, Kenji Kawamura & Thomas Flocker (2008) ‘ High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present’ Nature 453, 379-382 (15 May 2008) | doi:10.1038/nature06949; Received 12 October 2007; Accepted 17 March 2008 (Luthi 2008) http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7193/full/nature06949.html#a1 /180 – 280 ppm (170-300 ppm but 180-280 for the last glacial maximum and the Holocene values prior to the industrial increase.) Dome C (0-22 kyr BP): Monnin, E. et al (2001) Átmospheric CO2 Concentrations over the last Glacial Termination´ Science, 5 January 2001:Vol.291.no.5501, pp.112-114 DOI:10.1126/ science.291.5501.112

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/291/5501/112 / Vostok (0-440 kyr BP): Petit, J.R. et al (1999) Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica´ Nature 399, 429-436 (3 June 1999) | doi:10.1038/20859

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v399/n6735/abs/399429a0.html / Pepin, L., D. Raynaud, J.-M. Barnola, and M.F. Loutre. (2001) Hemispheric roles of climate forcings during glacial-interglacial transitions as deduced from the Vostok record and LLN-2D model experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research 106 (D23): 31,885-31,892 http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2001/2001JD900117.shtml /Raynaud, D. et al (2005) Palaeoclimatology:  The record for marine isotopic stage 11´Nature 436, 39-40 (7 July 2005) | doi:10.1038/43639b; Published online 6 July 2005

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v436/n7047/abs/436039b.html /Taylor Dome (19-63 kyr BP): Indermuhle, A. et al (2000) ´Atmospheric CO2 Concentration from 60 to 20 Kyr BP from the Taylor Dome Ice Core, Antarctica´ Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0220, USA http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/taylor/taylor-glacial.html / Dome C (393 – 664 kyr BP): Siegenthaler, U. et al (2005) ´Stable Carbon Cycle-Climate Relationship During the Late Pleistocene´ Science 25 November 2005:Vol. 310. No. 5752, pp.1313-1317 DOI:10.1126/science.1120130 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/310/5752/1313 /Dome C (611 – 800 kyr BP): above (Luthi 2008)

*9 email from Pieter Tans of NOAA on 27th March 2009 stating 2008 Mauna Loa 385.57 ppm global mean 384.85 rising about 2ppm pa so 2009 global mean about 386.85 (NOAA 2009) see www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

*10 12C J. Jouzel, V. Masson-Delmotte, O. Cattani, G. Dreyfus, S. Falourd, G. Hoffmann, B. Minster, J. Nouet, J. M. Barnola, J. Chappellaz, H. Fischer, J. C. Gallet, S. Johnsen, M. Leuenberger, L. Loulergue, D. Luethi, H. Oerter, F. Parrenin, G. Raisbeck, D. Raynaud, A. Schilt, J. Schwander, E. Selmo, R. Souchez, R. Spahni, B. Stauffer, J. P. Steffensen, B. Stenni, T. F. Stocker, J. L. Tison, M. Werner, E. W. Wolff (2007) Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years Originally published in Science Express on 5 July 2007
Science 10 August 2007:
Vol. 317. no. 5839, pp. 793 - 796
DOI: 10.1126/science.1141038 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/317/5839/793?rss=1 /Jouzel, J. et al (2007) ÉPICA Dome C Ice Core 800KYr Deuterium Data and Temperature Estimates´ IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2007-091 NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA

*11 Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper,I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S.,D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.p.803

*12 IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. SPM5 p.15

*13 (This supports projections of diminishing terrestial C-sequestration as early as 2030 (Fig 4.2) – earlier than suggested in the TAR (Prentice et al 2001) (Fig 3.10) and more substantial shifts in biome structure (Fig 4.3) discussed more fully in Sections 4.4.10 and 4.4.11.) Fischlin, A., G.F. Midgley, J.T. Price, R. Leemans, B. Gopal, C. Turley, M.D.A. Rounsevell, O.P. Dube, J. Tarazona, A.A. Velichko, 2007:Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 211-272. p.222

*14 (Based on this inventory the time-dependent feedback of hydrate destablisation to global warming has been addressed using different assumptions for the time constant destabilization: an anthropogenic release of 2,000 GtC to the atmosphere could cause an additional release of CH4 from gas hydrates of a similar magnitude (2,000 Gt(CH4) over a period of 1 to 100 kyr (Archer and Buffett 2005).) Archer, D., and Buffett, B. (2005) ‘Time-dependent response of the global ocean clathrate reservoir to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. Geophys., Geochem., Geosystems. 6(3)doi:10.1029/2004GC000854 cited in Denman, K.L., G. Brasseur, A. Chidthaisong, P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, R.E. Dickinson, D. Hauglustaine, C. Heinze, E. Holland, D. Jacob, U.Lohmann, S Ramachandran, P.L. da Silva Dias, S.C. Wofsy and X. Zhang, 2007: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate Systemand Biogeochemistry. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p.544

Climate Change

*15 (Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA p.10 www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP

*16 Houghton, J. (2004) ‘Global warming is getting worse – but the message is getting through’ The Guardian Aug 16th 2004 http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/opinion/story/0,,1284281,00.html /outside range of natural variability Creation Care Interview with Sir John Houghton in Physics Today Sept 8th 2007 http://inel.wordpress.com/2007/09/08/creation-care-interview-with-sir-john-houghton-in-physics-today/

*17 (However a well-established physical law (the Clausius-Clapeyron relation) determines that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7`% for every 1C rise in temperature.) Trenberth, K.E., P.D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu, D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F. Rahimzadeh, J.A. Renwick, M. Rusticucci,B. Soden and P. Zhai, 2007: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical ScienceBasis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p.262

*18 Alcamo, J., J.M.Moreno, B.Novaky, M.Bindi, R.Corobov, R.J.N.Devoy, C.Giannakopoulos, E.Martin, J.E.Olesen, A.Shvidenko, 2007: Europe ‘Climate Change 2007 : Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group 11 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,’ M.L.Parry, O.F.Canziani, J.P.Palutikof, P.J.van der Linden and C.E.Hanson, Eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK pp. 541-580 p.544

*19 Kunkel, K.E. et al (2003) ‘Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States; 1895-2000’ Geophys.Res.Lett, 30,1900,doi:10.1029/2003GLO18052 and Groisman, P.Ya et al (2004) ‘Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations’ J.Hydrometeorol, 5 64-85

*20 Dai, A. et al (2004) ‘A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming’ J.Hydrometeorol, 5, 1117-1130

*21 (More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970’s particularly in the tropics and subtropics.) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.8

*22 (By mid-century annual average river run-off and water availability are projected to increase by 10 to 40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas and decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of which are presently water-stressed areas. In some places and in particular seasons, changes differ from these annual figures.) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22. p.11

*23 Burke, E.J.,Brown, S.J. and Christidis, N, (2006) ‘Modeling the Recent Evolution of Global Drought and Projections for the Twenty-First Century with the Hadley Centre Climate Model’ p.17 Journal of Hydrometeorology, Oct 2006 Vol. 7, No. 5, page 1113

*24 (Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights and heat waves have become more frequent.) (Likelihood of future trends based on projections for 21st century using SRES scenarios. Virtually certain.) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA (CC 2007/ SPMWG1) www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.8

*25 Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom. The UK CIP02 Scientific Report’ Full Report April 2002 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich UK

*26 Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and Their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments’ by Robin Clark, Simon Brown & James Murphy of the Met Office Hadley Centre is published in the Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, No. 17, pages 4418-4435

*27 (Mid-latitude westerly winds have strengthened in both hemispheres since the 1960s.)(Anthropogenic forcing is likely to have contributed to changes in wind patterns, affecting extratropical storm tracks and temperature patterns in both hemispheres.) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP pp.8-10

*28 Webster, P.J et al (2005) ‘Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment.’ Science, 309, no.5742 1844-1846/ P.J. et al (2006) ‘Response to comment on ‘Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment’ Science 311 1713c

*29 Emanuel, K. (2005) ‘Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.’ Nature 436,686-688 / Emanuel, K. (2005) ‘Emanuel replies’ Nature 438 E13, doi:10.1038/nature04427 / Webster, P.J et al (2005) ‘Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment.’ Science, 309, no.5742 1844-1846/ P.J. et al (2006) ‘Response to comment on ‘Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment’ Science 311 1713c

*30 (Hurricanes and typhoons currently form from pre-existing disturbances only where SSTs exceed about 26C and, as SST’s have increased, it thereby potentially expands the areas over which such storms can form.) Trenberth, K.E., P.D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu, D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F. Rahimzadeh, J.A. Renwick, M. Rusticucci, B. Soden and P. Zhai, 2007: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA ( www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.305

*31 (By 2020 for example indications are that the ice cap on Mt Kilimanjaro could disappear for the first time in 11,000 years.) Thompson, L.G. et al (2002) ‘Kilimanjaro ice core records: evidence of Holocene change in tropical Africa’ Science 298, 589-593 Boko, M., I. Niang, A. Nyong, C. Vogel, A. Githeko, M. Medany, B. Osman-Elasha, R. Tabo and P. Yanda, 2007: Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 433-467. p.449

*32 (Because up to 90% of the incident solar radiation is reflected by snow and ice surfaces, while only about 10% is reflected by the open ocean or forested lands, changes in snow and ice cover are important feedback mechanisms in climate change.) Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, R.B. Alley, T. Berntsen, N.L. Bindoff, Z. Chen, A. Chidthaisong, J.M. Gregory, G.C. Hegerl, M. Heimann, B. Hewitson, B.J. Hoskins, F. Joos, J. Jouzel, V. Kattsov, U. Lohmann, T. Matsuno, M. Molina, N. Nicholls, J. Overpeck, G. Raga, V. Ramaswamy, J. Ren, M. Rusticucci, R. Somerville, T.F. Stocker, P. Whetton, R.A. Wood and D. Wratt, 2007: Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p.43

*33 Hassol S.J, Correll ,R.W. (2006) ‘Arctic Climate Impact Assessment’ www.acia.uaf.edu in H. J.Schellnhuber et al (eds) (2006) ‘Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change’ Cambridge University Press, February 2006, ISBN 9780521864718 DOI: 10.2277/0521864712

*34 email from Dr John Walsh on 16th April 2007 Director Co-Operative Institute for Arctic Research (CIFAR) http://www.cifar.uaf.edu

*35 (4.28 million km2 average September 2007) National Snow and Ice Data Center 1st October 2007 Press release ‘Arctic Sea Ice Shatters All Previous Record Lows. Diminished summer sea ice leads to opening of the fabled Northwest passage’ http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html

*36 (Thickness data, especially from submarines, are available but restricted to the central Arctic , where they indicate thinning of approximately 40% between the period 1958 to 1977 and the 1990s.) Carter, T.R., R.N. Jones, X. Lu, S. Bhadwal, C. Conde, L.O. Mearns, B.C. O’Neill, M.D.A. Rounsevell and M.B. Zurek, 2007: New Assessment Methods and the Characterisation of Future Conditions. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F.Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 133-171. p.376

*37 (Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic under all SRES scenarios. In some projections Arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century.) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.15 / ( Arctic could be ice free in summer by 2030) National Snow and Ice Data Center 1st October 2007 Press release ‘Arctic Sea Ice Shatters All Previous Record Lows. Diminished summer sea ice leads to opening of the fabled Northwest passage’ http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html / Stroeve, J. et al (2007) ‘Arctic Sea ice decline : Faster than forecast ?’ GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703 / ‘Models Underestimate Loss of Arctic Sea Ice ‘ National Snow and Ice Data Centre Press release 30th April 2007 http://nsidc.org/news/press/20070430_StroeveGRL.html

*38 (The Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets taken together have very likely contributed to the sea level rise of the past decade.) Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, R.B. Alley, T. Berntsen, N.L. Bindoff, Z. Chen, A. Chidthaisong, J.M. Gregory, G.C. Hegerl,M. Heimann, B. Hewitson, B.J. Hoskins, F. Joos, J. Jouzel, V. Kattsov, U. Lohmann, T. Matsuno, M. Molina, N. Nicholls, J.Overpeck, G. Raga, V. Ramaswamy, J. Ren, M. Rusticucci, R. Somerville, T.F. Stocker, P. Whetton, R.A. Wood and D. Wratt, 2007: Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p.46

*39 (Global average sea level in the last interglacial period (about 125,000 years ago) was likely 4 to 6 m higher than during the 20th century, mainly due to the retreat of polar ice. Ice core data indicate that average polar temperatures at that time were 3C to 5C higher than present, because of differences in the Earth’s orbit. The Greenland Ice Sheet and other Arctic ice fields likely contributed no more than 4 m of the observed sea level rise. There may also have been a contribution from Antarctica.) Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.9

*40 (2.8C to 7.8C above 1980 to 1999 period by 2080 to 2099 add 0.5C for temperature rise above 1850-1899 average) Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L.Mearns, C.G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr and P. Whetton, 2007: Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p.857

*41 (Current models suggest that ice mass losses increase with temperature more rapidly than gains due to precipitation and that the surface mass balance becomes negative at a global average warming (relative to pre-industrial values) in excess of 1.9C to 4.6C) . If a negative surface balance were sustained for millennia, that would lead to virtually complete elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet and a resulting contribution to sea level rise of about 7m.) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.17

* 42 (Since records began 50 years ago , mean annual temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have risen rapidly >2,5C at Vernadsky (formerly Faraday) station. (Turner et al 2005).Turner, J. et al (2005) ‘Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years’ Int.J.Climatol., 25, 279-294 cited in Anisimov, O.A., D.G. Vaughan, T.V. Callaghan, C. Furgal, H. Marchant, T.D. Prowse, H. Vilhjálmsson and J.E. Walsh, 2007: Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 653-685. p.674

*43 British Antarctic Survey Press Release 19th March 2002 PR/Number 5 2002

*44 ‘Antarctic Ice Shelf Hangs By A Thread’ PR10/08 25th March 2008 http://www.antArctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=376

*45 NSIDC Press release ‘Media Advisory: Ice Bridge Supporting Wilkins Ice Shelf Collapses’ http://nsidc.org/news/press/20090408_Wilkins.html

*46 http://www.sciencemag.org Retreating Glacier Fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the Past Half-Century A. J. Cook, A. J. Fox, D. G. Vaughan, J. G. Ferrigno, Science, Vol 308, Issue 5721, 541-544 , 22 April 2005 [DOI: 10.1126/science.1104235]

*47 (The complete elimination of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet would lead to a contribution to sea-level rise of up to 7m and about 5m, respectively [Working Group 1 Fourth Assessment 6.4, 10.7: Working Group 11 Fourth Assessment 19.3]) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22. p.17

*48 (Observations since 1961 show that the average temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m and that the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system. Such warming causes seawater to expand, contributing to sea level rise.) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.5

*49 (Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm per year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was faster over 1993 to 2003: about 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm per year. Whether the faster rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal variability or an increase in the longer-term trend is unclear. There is high confidence that the rate of observed sea level rise increased from the 19th to the 20th century. The total 20th-century rise is estimated to be 0.17 [0.12 to 0.22] m.) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP pp.5-7

*50 (m at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999) Model-based range excluding future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow 0.18-0.59m)(The projections include a contribution due to increased ice flow from Greenland and Antarctica at the rates observed for 1993 to 2003, but these flow rates could increase or decrease in the future. For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with global average temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM.3 would increase by 0.1 to 0.2m. Larger values cannot be excluded but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.) Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP Table SPM.3 pp.13-14

*51 (Based on current models simulations, it is very unlikely that the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic ocean will slow down during the 21st century . The multi-model average reduction by 2100 is 25% (range from zero to about 50%) for SRES emission scenario A1B.) .) Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.16

*52 (Net ocean-to-atmosphere flux -2.2 + or – 0.5 AR4 2000-2005 ) Denman, K.L., G. Brasseur, A. Chidthaisong, P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, R.E. Dickinson, D. Hauglustaine, C. Heinze, E. Holland, D. Jacob, U.Lohmann, S Ramachandran, P.L. da Silva Dias, S.C. Wofsy and X. Zhang, 2007: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Table 7.1 p.516 /(Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to increasing acidification of the ocean. Projections based on SRES scenarios give reductions in average global surface ocean pH16 of between 0.14 and 0.35 units over the 21st century, adding to the present decrease of 0.1 units since pre-industrial times.) Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.14

*53 Turley, C. et al (2006) 'Reviewing the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 on oceanic pH and the marine ecosystem' in H. J.Schellnhuber et al (eds) (2006) ‘Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change’ Cambridge University Press, February 2006, ISBN 9780521864718 DOI: 10.2277/0521864712 pp.65-70

*54 (Warming tends to reduce land and ocean uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, increasing the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remains in the atmosphere.) Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.13

*55 (15 to 37%) (mean 24%)/ further 1.5C (Mean 2.2 Range 2.1-2.3C above pre-industrial = approx 0.8C to date plus 1.5C) Thomas, C.D., A. Cameron, R.E. Green, M. Bakkenes, L.J. Beaumont, Y.C.Collingham, B.F.N. Erasmus, M.F. de Siqueira, A. Grainger, L. Hannah, L. Hughes, B. Huntley, A.S. van Jaarsveld, G.F. Midgley, L. Miles, M.A. Ortega-Huerta, A.T. Peterson, O.L. Phillips and S.E. Williams, 2004 Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145-148.cited in Fischlin, A., G.F. Midgley, J.T. Price, R. Leemans, B. Gopal, C. Turley, M.D.A. Rounsevell, O.P. Dube, J. Tarazona, A.A. Velichko, 2007:Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof,P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 211-272. p.243

*56 0.5C per century (0.05 per decade) van Vilet, A. and Leemans, R. ‘Rapid Species’ Responses to Changes in Climate Require Stringent Climate Protection Targets’ in H. J.Schellnhuber et al (eds) (2006) ‘Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change’ Cambridge University Press, February 2006, ISBN 9780521864718 DOI: 10.2277/0521864712 pp.135-141/ 1C per century (0.1C per decade) Leemans, R. and Eickout B. (2003) ‘Analysing ecosystems for different levels of climate change’ Report to OECD Working Party on Global and Structural Policies ENV/EPOC/GSP5/ FINAL.OECD/Vellinga, P. and Swart, R.J,(1991) ‘The greenhouse marathon: A proposal for a global strategy’ Climatic Change 18, 7-12

*57 35%/ 50% (52%)/ 70% (71%) IUCN Press release ‘Climate Change : Pushing species to the brink’ Oct 2008 http://www.iucn.org/congress_08/media/?1789/Climate-change-pushing-species-to-the-brink

*58 ‘Future Retreat of Arctic Sea ice Will Lower Polar Bear Populations and Limit their Distribution’ USGS Press release 9th July 2007 http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1773

*59 (Mean 3.1C Range 2.3 – 3.7 above pre-industrial 2C SST (above 1990 range) Extinction of remaining coral reef systems (overgrown by algae) ( 2.3C – 3.7C above pre-industrial = approx 0.8C to date plus 1.5C to 0.8C to date plus 3C) Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (1999) ‘Climate change coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs.’ Marine and freshwater research 50, 839-866

*60 Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change Chris Jones

*, Jason Lowe, Spencer Liddicoat and Richard Betts Nature Geoscience Letters Published Online : 28 June 2009 | DOI: 10.1038/NGEO555

*61 3C (2.9) (Range 2.6-3.3 2.1-2.8 21-52% )(mean 35%) of species committed to extinction GlobeThomas, C.D., A. Cameron, R.E. Green, M. Bakkenes, L.J. Beaumont, Y.C.Collingham, B.F.N. Erasmus, M.F. de Siqueira, A. Grainger, L. Hannah, L. Hughes, B. Huntley, A.S. van Jaarsveld, G.F. Midgley, L. Miles, M.A. Ortega-Huerta, A.T. Peterson, O.L. Phillips and S.E. Williams, 2004a: Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145-148.cited in Fischlin, A., G.F. Midgley, J.T. Price, R. Leemans, B. Gopal, C. Turley, M.D.A. Rounsevell, O.P. Dube, J. Tarazona, A.A. Velichko, 2007: Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof,P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 211-272 pp.242-245

Human Impacts

*62 McMichael, A.J., et al (2004): “Chapter 20: Global Climate Change” in Comparative Quantification of Health Risks. World Health Organization/ Kron, W. (2009): “Flood insurance: from clients to global financial markets”, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2 68-75, Geo Risks Research, Munich Reinsurance Company, Koeniginstrasse, Munich, Germany. / CRED and ISDR (2008): “2008 Disasters in Numbers” International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, p.1-2. March 25./ http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSSP141565 Estimate that 37% of drought is caused by climate change in 6 regions of the world. Baines, P. (2009): “The attribution of causes of current decadal droughts” University of Melbourne and Fogarty, D. (2009): “Global warming 37 pct to blame for droughts-scientist ” Reuters, March 25. http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSSP141565. cited in Human Impact Report: Climate Change ‘The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis’ (2009) Global Humanitarian Forum p.9 and p.11,12 http://www.ghfgeneva.org/OurWork/RaisingAwareness/HumanImpactReport/tabid/180/Default.aspx

*63 125 million/ six fold (20,788,931 to 127,547,900 pa on 1998-2007 affected annual average)( 6 fold increase in flood disasters 27 to 169) emails from David Hargitt of Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) on 16th and 23rd February 2007 www.cred.be with data. Emergency Events Database Universitie Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, (Belgium)/ EM-DAT www.emdat.be / World Disasters Report 2008 http://www.ifrc.org/Docs/pubs/disasters/wdr2008/WDR2008-full.pdf

*64 Human Development Report 2007/2008 Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World’ http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/ p.9

*65 NOAA Issues Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Encourages Preparedness May 21, 2009 http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090521_atlantichurricane.html

*66 (In the absence of an improvement to protection, coastal flooding could grow tenfold or more by the 2080s, to affect more than 100 million people/yr due to sea level rise alone.) Nicholls, R.J., P.P. Wong, V.R. Burkett, J.O. Codignotto, J.E. Hay, R.F. McLean, S. Ragoonaden and C.D. Woodroffe, 2007: Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 315-356. p.339

*67 almost half (47%) OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development) 2008 OECD Environment Outlook to 2030. Paris : Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development http://www.oecd.org/document/20/0,3343,en_2649_34305_39676628_1_1_1_37465,00.html

*68 (In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives.) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.13

*69 923 million hungry today ‘The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2008 Food and Agricultural Organization http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0291e/i0291e00.htm/ 100-380 million/towards the end of the century (Scenarios with climate change project 100-380 million (range includes with and without CO2 fertilization for A1, B1, B2 SRES scenarios ) undernourished by 2080 (740-1,300 million under A2)(low to medium confidence).) Easterling, W.E., P.K. Aggarwal, P. Batima, K.M. Brander, L. Erda, S.M. Howden, A. Kirilenko, J. Morton, J.-F. Soussana, J. Schmidhuber and F.N. Tubiello, 2007: Food, fibre and forest products. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 273-313. p.275 / 400 million (1.3 billion – 923 million) (740-1300 million under A2 by 2080 ( /600 million (facing acute malnutrition) Warren, Rachel, Nigel Arnell, Robert Nicholls, Peter Levy and Jeff Price. 2006. “Understanding the Regional Impacts of Climate Change. Research Report Prepared for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.” Research Working Paper No. 90.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, Norwich. cited in Human Development Report 2007/2008 Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World’ http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/ p.9

*70 300,000 die (315,000) McMichael, A.J., et al (2004): “Chapter 20: Global Climate Change” in Comparative Quantification of Health Risks. World Health Organization/ Kron, W. (2009): “Flood insurance: from clients to global financial markets”, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2 68-75, Geo Risks Research, Munich Reinsurance Company, Koeniginstrasse, Munich, Germany. / CRED and ISDR (2008): “2008 Disasters in Numbers” International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, p.1-2. March 25 /Estimate that 37% of drought is caused by climate change in 6 regions of the world. Baines, P. (2009): “The attribution of causes of current decadal droughts” University of Melbourne and Fogarty, D. (2009): “Global warming 37 pct to blame for droughts-scientist ” Reuters, March 25. http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSSP141565. cited in Human Impact Report: Climate Change ‘The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis’ (2009) Global Humanitarian Forum p.9 and p.11 http://www.ghfgeneva.org/OurWork/RaisingAwareness/HumanImpactReport/tabid/180/Default.aspx

*71 (145 million exposed globally to sea level rise of 1m Anthoff, D. et al (2006) : ‘Global and Regional Exposure to Large Rises in Sea Level: A Sensitivity Analysis’. Working Paper 96 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk, 31 pp cited in Nicholls, R.J., P.P. Wong, V.R. Burkett, J.O. Codignotto, J.E. Hay, R.F. McLean, S. Ragoonaden and C.D. Woodroffe, 2007: Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 315-356.p.346 Table 6.12 (additional to this will be people escaping drought stricken or frequently flooded areas) / (up to 200 million Myers, N. and Kent, J. (1995) 'Environmental Exodus: an emergent crisis in the global arena’ published by Climate Institute, Washington DC (Myers & Kent) )/ (330 million displaced through flooding and sea level rise) Human Development Report 2007/2008 Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World’ http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008 p.9

*72 (economic losses seven fold to $48 billion pa (7.6 fold) (1960-1969 decade average $6.29 billion pa to $47.84 billion pa between 1999-2008 2008 values)/ Insured losses twenty-nine fold to $22 billion pa (1960-69 decade average $0.67 billion pa to $21.74 billion pa 2008 values) Munich Re Great Natural Disasters 1950-2008 Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE www.munichre.com/geo

*73 (approx 1% of $110 trillion) / The Economics of Climate Change The Stern Review. Cambridge University Press p.149 & p.262

*74 0.8C : the current 5-year trend value is ~0.55 C above the 1951-1980 30-year average. Estimating from the curve, the 1951-1980 average is another 0.25-0.30 C above the 1880-1900 average http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

*75 1.6-7C (1.6 to 6.9C = 1.1 to 6.4C at 20-99 relative to 1980-1999. (plus approx 0.5C to 1980-1999) (Temperature changes are expressed as the difference from the period 1980-1999. To express the change relative to the period 1850-1899 add 0.5C) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA (CC 2007/ SPMWG1) p.13 www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP and Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group 11 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,’ M.L.Parry, O.F.Canziani, J.P.Palutikof, P.J.van der Linden and C.E.Hanson, Eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK 7-22 p.11

Solutions

*76 SPM8 (chance of keeping to 1.5C would require lower band of climate sensitivity (the blue line) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group 111 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B.Metz, O.R.Davidson, P.R.Bosch, R.Dave, L.A.Meyer (eds)] Cambridge University Press, Cambridge United Kingdom and New York NY, USA ) p.17 (Table SPM5 p.15 states global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial at equilibrium using best estimate climate sensitivity is 2-2.4C with CO2 concentration of 350-400 ppm or CO2 equivalent concentration of 445-490 ppm for A1 scenario if peak by 2015 and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 50-85% by 2050 on 2000 levels)/near zero ( In fact, only in the case of essentially complete elimination of emissions can the atmospheric concentration of CO2 ultimately be stabilized at a constant level. All other cases of moderate CO2 emission reductions show increasing concentrations because of the characteristic exchange processes associated with the cycling of carbon in the climate system.) Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. pp.824-825

*77 1.5C ‘AOSIS Views on Shared Vision; Presented by Mr Philip Weech on behalf of The Alliance of Small island Developing States AWG-LCA Shared Vision Workshop COP 14 Dec, 2 2008 http://copportal1.man.poznan.pl/Archive.aspx?EventID=26&Lang=english/ ) Hansen, J., et al (2008) ‘Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?’ Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, doi:10.21741874282300802010217 www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080407.pdf (Dr James Hansen calling for stabilization of CO2 at 350 ppm initially which would equate with today’s temperature increase)/www.350.org call for stabilization at 350 ppm which they confirm equates with a 1.5C temperature rise above pre-industrial/EU amended 2C target to less than 2C above pre-industrial `EU - http://www.europa-eu-un.org/articles/en/article_8468_en.htm

*78 80-90% (As advised by emissions pathways climatologist)(50 to 85% by 2050 on 2000 levels - IPCC called for these CO2 emissions reductions to keep to 2.0-2.4C if peak by 2015 see 1 above.) However 1. Target proposed is 1.5C rather than 2.0-2.4C hence greater emissions reductions necessary 2. Models used to date do not include uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedback nor do they include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow because a basis in published literature is lacking IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP p.14/ Also re Stabilization Pathways : The risk of climate feedbacks is generally not included in the above analysis … Therefore the emission reductions to meet a particular stabilization level reported in the mitigation studies assessed here might be underestimated. Fisher, B.S., N.Nakicenovic, K.Alfsen, J.Corfee Morlot, F.de la Chesnaye, J.-Ch.Hourcade, K.Jiang, M.Kainuma, E.La Rovere, A.Matysek, A.Rana, K.Riahi, R.Richels, S.Rose, D.van Vuuren, R.Warren, 2007: Issues related to mitigation in the long term context, In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group 111 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B.Metz, O.R.Davidson, P.R.Bosch, R.Dave, L.A.Meyer (eds)] Cambridge University Press, Cambridge United Kingdom and New York NY, USA p.173 3. Elimination of the shielding effect of aerosols must be taken into account re emissions reductions. (Thus environmental strategies aimed at maintaining global warming below a prescribed threshold must therefore account not only for CO2 emissions but also for measures implemented to improve air quality.) Denman, K.L., G. Brasseur, A. Chidthaisong, P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, R.E. Dickinson, D. Hauglustaine, C. Heinze, E. Holland, D. Jacob, U.Lohmann, S Ramachandran, P.L. da Silva Dias, S.C. Wofsy and X. Zhang, 2007: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. p.567 4. Climate sensitivity may be best estimate 3C or higher. If higher greater emissions reductions will be required to keep to a low temperature increase.

*79 SPM 1 Global economic mitigation potential in 2030 estimated from bottom up studies : Carbon Price 50US$tCO2-eq /100 US$tCO2-eq Reduction relative to SRES AIB 68GtCO2-eq/yr (%) 20-38% and 23-45% (respectively)/ Reduction relative to SRES B2 48 GtCO2-eq/yr 27-52% and 32-63% (respectively). /SPM2 Global economic mitigation potential in 2030 estimated from top-down studies Price 50US$tCO2-eq/100 US$tCO2-eq Reduction relative to SRES AIB 68 GtCO2-eq/yr (%) 21-34% and 25-38% (respectively)/ Reduction relative to SRES B2 48 GtCO2-eq/yr 29-47% and 35-53% (respectively).) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group 111 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B.Metz, O.R.Davidson, P.R.Bosch, R.Dave, L.A.Meyer (eds)] Cambridge University Press, Cambridge United Kingdom and New York NY, USA ) p.9 /(Diverse evidence indicates that carbon prices in the range 20-50 US$tCO2 (US$75-185/tC) reached globally by 2020-30 and sustained or increased thereafter would deliver deep emission reductions by mid-century consistent with stabilization at around 550 ppm CO2-eq.) Barker, T., I.Bashmakov, A.Alharthi, M.Amann, LCifuentes, J.Drexhage, M.Duan, O.Edenhofer, B.Flannery, M.Grubb, M.Hoogwijk, F.I.Ibitoye, C.J.Jepma, W.A.Pizer, K.Yamaji, 2007: Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective. . In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group 111 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B.Metz, O.R.Davidson, P.R.Bosch, R.Dave, L.A.Meyer (eds)] p.256 Cambridge University Press, Cambridge United Kingdom and New York NY, USA p.621

*80 Hansen, J., et al (2008) ‘Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?’ Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, doi:10.21741874282300802010217 www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080407.pdf

*81 ‘Renewable Energy Futures: Targets, Scenarios, and Pathways’ Annual Review of Environment and Resources, vol. 32 (2007), pp. 205-239.Eric Martinot, Carmen Dienst, Liu Weiliang, and Chai Qimin http://www.martinot.info/futures.htm (Martinot/Pathways) Studies that project 50% of energy from renewables by 2050 cited in this article are :

A The German Advisory Council on Global Change (2004) ‘World in Transition: Towards Sustainable Energy Systems’ (German Advisory Council 2004) Earthscan, London exemplary path scenario 50% energy by 2050 B World Business Council for Sustainable Development (2005) ‘Pathways to 2050 Energy and Climate Change’ Geneva 50% of electricity not energy by 2050 C Royal Dutch/Shell (1996) ‘The Evolution of the World’s Energy Systems’ London – (Shell 1996) ‘sustainable development’ scenario 50% of global total primary energy from renewables by 2050 / 2001 new Shell scenario ‘spirit of a new age’ shows less than 28% of primary energy by 2050 and ‘dynamics scenario’ with 33% of primary energy by 2050. In 2005 Royal Dutch Shell (2005) ‘ The Shell Global Scenarios to 2025’ Washington DC Institute for International Economics (Shell 2005) – new scenarios with renewables reaching either 280 to 330 EJ by 2025 (491EJ in 2006 above (Martinot/Pathways 2007) p.5 (IEA 2008 expect 45% increase on 2006’s consumption by 2030 so 491EJ x 1.45/24x 19 = 563EJ by 2025) so 280/623 to 330.623 = 50 to 59%of energy by 2025 ! D Greenpeace and European Renewable Energy Council (2007) ‘Energy [R]evolution: a Sustainable World Energy Outlook ‘ 50% of energy by 2050 and 70% of electricity 5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ‘Special Report on Emissions Scenarios’ (2000) Cambridge UK, Cambridge University Press (Emissions Scenarios 2000/IPCC) primary energy ranges from 640 to 1600 EJ by 2050 and renewables ranges from 70 to 440 EJ so at worse 4% of energy from renewables by 2050 at best 69% (68.75%)

Also not in (Martinot/Pathways 2007) up to 50% by 2040 – European Renewable Energy Council (2004) ‘Renewable Energy Scenario to 2040’ www.erec-renewables.org/124.0.html

*82 Greenpeace (2006) ‘Decentralising Power: An Energy Revolution for the 21st Century’ Greenpeace UK www.greenpeace.org.uk/MultimediaFiles/Live/FullReport/7759.pdf /Energy Savings Trust (2005) 'Potential for Microgeneration Study and Analysis' http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file27558.pdf

*83 (21% to 45% of CO2 emissions in 2050 based on emissions range of 1.3 – 10 GtC) IPCC, 2005: IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Metz, B., O. Davidson, H. C. de Coninck, M. Loos, and L. A. Meyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork, NY, USA, 442 pp. www.ipcc.ch ‘Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage 2005 Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary’ p.24 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change WMO/UNEP www.ipcc.ch

*84 Annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions increased from an average 6.4 [6.0 to 6.8] GtC (23.5 [22.0 to 25.0] GtCO2) per year in the 1990’s to 7.2 [6.9 to 7.5] GtC (26.4 [25.3 to 27.5) GtCO2 per year in 2000-2005 (2004 and 2005 data are interim estimates). Carbon dioxide emissions associated with land-use change are estimated to be 1.6 [0.5 to 2.7] GtC (5.9 [1.8 to 9.9] GtCO2 ) per year over the 1990s, although these estimates have a large uncertaintly.)( 7.2/8.8 and land use 1.6/8.8 re about 80%/20% NB Fossil carbon dioxide emissions include those from the production, distribution and consumption of fossil fuels and as a by-product from cement production.) IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate [Solomon, S., D.Qin, M.Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L.Miller (eds)] . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA (CC 2007/ SPMWG1) www.ipcc.ch WMO/UNEP pp.2-3

*85 (Due to the associated CO2 emissions the net amount of CO2 captured is approximately 80-90%) IPCC, 2005: IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Metz, B., O. Davidson, H. C. de Coninck, M. Loos, and L. A. Meyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork, NY, USA, p.9

*86 See *84 above

*87 ($5 bn The opportunity cost in 8 countries responsible for 70% of emissions from land-use, including one-off timber sales) Grieg-Gran, M. (2006) ‘The cost of avoiding deforestation’ – report prepared for Stern Review, International Institute for Environment and Development (Grieg-Gran 2006) The Economics of Climate Change The Stern Review. Cambridge University Press p.610 www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/9/5/Chapter_25_Reversing_Emissions_from_Land_Use_Change.pdf

*88 Scherr, S.J. and Sthapit, S. (2009) ‘Farming and Land Use to Cool the Planet’ cited in State of the World 2009’ Worldwatch Institute Earthscan London pp.30-49 / Hansen, J., et al (2008) ‘Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?’ Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 217-231, doi:10.21741874282300802010217 www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080407.pdf

*89 ‘Cost of tackling global climate change has doubled, warns Stern’ Juliette Jowitt & Patrick Wintour ‘The Guardian’ 26th June 2008 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/26/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange

What You Can Do To Help

*90 Dupont over 70%/ $3 billion ‘Dupont joins global coalition calling for coordinated action to address climate change’ L.Fisher 20.2.2007 ‘http://vocuspr.vocus.com/VocusPR30/Newsroom/Query.aspx?SiteName=DupontNew&Entity=PRAsset&SF_PRAsset_PRAssetID_EQ=105022&XSL=PressRelease&Cache=False [Accessed 1.10.2009] / HSBC email from Francis Sullivan of HSBC on 28th March 2007 / M&S‘Plan A because there is no Plan B’ / UNEP billion trees campaign www.unep.org/billiontreecampaign [Accessed 1.10.2007]