Future Plight
c. 1999 Topham Picturepoint
The damages reaped to date due to global warming and climate change may be but a shadow of what is to come to the peril of our world, its species and peoples.
Economic & Insured Loss & Insurance
If humans do not significantly reduce and eventually stop their use of fossil fuels then our planet may heat up irretrievably so that our children and future generations will inherit a world of increasingly devastating storms, floods and droughts. In time this world may become too hot to sustain life.
As our world's temperatures rise unprecedented human suffering is occurring, caused by more frequent and intense storms, floods and droughts. As temperatures increase further, flooding will be additionally exacerbated by rising sea levels - if the ice caps melt not only would major cities of the world disappear under water but indeed possibly whole regions - In flooded landscapes livestock and wildlife will drown and crops will be destroyed to the peril of those who rely on them both domestically but also in other parts of the world .
In other areas droughts may result in substantial famine causing mass migrations of peoples and untold suffering and death - it has now been affirmed that the Ethiopian Sudan and Somalia famines occurred because the rains that used to fall over these areas now fall instead over Europe due to climate change altering the distribution of rainfall. (Science/Gore) This has resulted in millions starving - the famines witnessed here may spread throughout subtropical and tropical areas due to climate change. Displaced flood and drought victims will result in mass migrations of people seeking food, water and shelter and it is anticipated that severe conflict may arise as peoples fight over resources. It is projected that by 2050 there may be 150 million climate change refugees (3m pa). ( Myers & Kent)
Forests and certain plantlife will be lost whilst species of animals, fish, birds and insects will become extinct unable to survive as their natural habitats are damaged and disappear -
This unprecedented holocaust of our world is occurring due to our source of energy - Within a single lifetime this planet is to be damaged to such a degree that it may not be reversible - the changes we are instigating now threaten the world's future and therefore that of our children and future generations.
Carbon Dioxide & Temperature
If our world's atmosphere contained only nitrogen and oxygen the average global temperature over the oceans and land would be -6C.
Instead the average surface temperature of the Earth over the whole year is 15C. The extra 21C of warmth is due to the natural greenhouse effect -
Radiant energy from the sun falls on the Earth. 6% of it is scattererd back into space by atmospheric molecules, approx 10% on average is reflected back into space from the land and ocean surface. The remaining 84% of the sun's radiant energy remains to heat the Earth's surface.
To balance this incoming radiant energy, the Earth radiates on average the same amount of energy back to space in the form of thermal radiation. The gases nitrogen and oxygen, which make up most of the atmosphere do not absorb or emit this thermal radiation. However water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and some other minor gases do - they absorb some of the thermal radiation that the Earth's surface emits, which causes our atmosphere to be 21C warmer than it would otherwise be without these gases, like a partial blanket - And this blanketing is known as the natural greenhouse effect and the gases causing this extra warming of our atmosphere are called greenhouse gases. (Houghton)
If the amount of water vapour, carbon
dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are increased in our
atmosphere then the extra thermal radiation absorbed
increases the blanketing effect so that more heat is
trapped, further warming our atmosphere. At present
we are substantially increasing the amount of carbon
dioxide and methane in our atmosphere, the current
levels of which have no historical precedent.
See Vostok Ice
Cores
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The Vostok Ice Core Data
This is a graph showing the Vostok ice core data which found that throughout the last 420,000 years carbon dioxide ranged between approx 180 ppm (180 parts of carbon dioxide for every million parts of air) and 280 ppm.
The range of difference of approx 100 ppm of carbon dioxide intimately correlated with temperature - when carbon dioxide concentrations rose temperature rose, or vice versa - when temperature fell then carbon dioxide levels fell and similarly with methane, albeit it is uncertain which preceded which - the greenhouse gases or temperature.
However the range of 100 ppm of carbon dioxide correlated with a 5C difference in global average temperature and a 12C range in global land surface temperature. (Petit et al)
The IPCC project that carbon dioxide concentrations could rise in the worst case scenario up to 970/1260ppm.(IPCC)(11)
The Vostok ice core graph affirms however how CO2 and temperature have correlated throughout 420,000 years - There is no evidence to suggest Nature will not continue this correlation. If CO2 levels rise as projected the ice cores indicate how hot it could get if not this then in future centuries.
Global mean temperature continues to increase for hundreds of years at a rate of a few tenths of a degree per century after concentrations of CO2 have been stabilised, due to long time-scales in the ocean. (IPCC)(12)
Energy & Population Growth
Energy Growth
Since approx 75% of anthropogenic (caused by humans) global warming in the past twenty years has been caused by the use of fossil fuels - oil, coal and gas - to supply the world's energy, it means that if global energy use increases, then greenhouse gas emissions will also increase if we continue to use these energy sources.
Energy growth has traditionally been linked to economic growth - if a country seeks economic growth, it requires more energy and hence it is important to see what projections exist for future economic and energy growth for these will likely relate to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Current projections provide a very bleak outlook :
Overview
Increase In Economic Growth & World Energy Consumption
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Global economic growth is projected to increase by more than 3% pa. (World Energy Outlook 2000/International Energy Outlook (WEO2000/IEA)
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World economic growth is projected to grow at between 2.2-2.7% pa to 2050. (World Energy Council IIASA Scenarios (WEC))
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World energy consumption is projected to increase by 60% from 1999 to 2020. (International Energy Outlook 2002(IEO) Energy Information Administration US (EIA))
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Global primary energy demand is projected to increase by 1.7% pa from 2000 to 2030 resulting in an increase of 66% (WEO2002/IEA)
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World primary energy consumption is projected to increase at least by 58% on 1990 levels by 2050. At worse it is projected to increase by 176% on 1990 levels. (WEC)
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Developing countries are projected to be responsible for more than 60% of the increase in world primary energy demand between 2000 and 2030. Growth will be particularly significant in Asia. (WEO2002/IEA)
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Developing countries share of world energy demand will rise from 30% in 2000 to 43% in 2030 whilst the OECD's share will fall from 58% to 47%. The rapid increase in demand in developing countries will be due to economic and population growth as well as industrialisation and urbanisation. (WEO2002/IEA)
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Much of the growth in world energy consumption is projected to occur in the developing world. In developing Asia and Central and South America energy demand is projected to more than double between 1999 and 2020, which will account for approx half of the total increase in world energy consumption and approx 83% of the increase in the developing world. (IEA2002/EIA)
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71% to 100% of the projected energy growth will occur in the developing world to 2050. (WEC)
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In 1990 developing countries consumed approx 34% of world energy, economies in transition consumed approx 19% and OECD countries consumed approx 47%. By 2050 developing countries are projected to consume between 58-67% of world energy, economies in transition are projected to consume 12-15% and OECD countries 21-27%. (WEC)
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World electricity use is projected to increase by 69% between 1999 to 2020, with the largest growth expected in developing countries. (IEO2002/EIA)
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World electricity demand will double from 2000 to 2030 with the biggest increase in demand coming from developing countries.
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Energy consumption in the transportation sector is expected to continue to increase rapidly at a rate of 1.5% per year in developed countries and 3.6% in developing countries. ( UNEP Pre Summit Report (SR) 2002)
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Transport demand, almost entirely for oil, will grow the most rapidly of all end use sectors at 2% pa to 2030. (WEO2002/IEA)
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From 1992-1999 world consumption of energy increased by almost 10% . People in developed countries consumed an average of 6.4 tonnes of oil equivalent per year (toe/yr) per capita in 1999, 10 times the consumption of developing regions of about 0.62 toe/yr per capita. ( UNEP SR)
Increase In CO2 Emissions
If we are to stabilise atmospheric concentrations to stop global warming and climate change we must reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by 60-80% below their 1990 levels. However :
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Global carbon emissions doubled in just over thirty years between 1965 to 1998 amounting to an increase of 2.1% pa following the general trend of energy consumption. ( UNEP SR 2002)
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CO2 emissions will grow slightly more rapidly than primary energy demand, increasing by 1.8 % pa from 2000 to 2030 under current policies - an increase of 70% on today's emissions. (WEO2002/IEA)
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Developing countries are projected to account for 72% of the anticipated increase in CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2020 due to expanding economies increasing energy consumption. (IEO2002/EIA)
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66% of the increase in CO2 emissions are projected to come from developing countries. (WEO2002/IEA)
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It is expected that carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector will have increased by 75% between 1997 and 2020 and that CO2 emissions from aircraft will have increased even more rapidly over the same period at a rate of 3% pa. ( UNEP SR)
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The developing countries are projected to continue to rely heavily on coal and fossil fuels so that even if the industrialized world manage to reduce CO2 emissions, worldwide CO2 emissions would still grow substantially up to 2020. (IEO2002/EIA)
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World CO2 emissions are projected in the worst case scenario to rise to 15.1 Gtc pa by 2050 constituting a 152% increase on 1990 levels of 6Gtc. At best they are projected to be 5 Gtc by 2050 which would constitute a 17% decrease on 1990 levels. (WEC)
All the key international bodies anticipate substantial world energy growth and significant increases in CO2 emissions.
At a time when we should be reducing our CO2 emissions by 60-80% they are projected to INCREASE by approx 70% on todays levels by 2030 (nearly a 90% increase on 1990's levels). (IEA)
Projected Energy Sources and Necessary Investment to 2020/2050
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In 2000 renewable energy sources contributed 13.8% to global primary energy - by 2030 their contribution is projected to actually fall to 12.5% for although renewable energy sources are growing, overally energy consumption is increasing even faster. (IEA)
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In 1990 fossil fuels accounted for 77.8% of total global primary energy supply, with nuclear energy accounting for 5.6%, hydro 4.4%, traditional biomass 10% and new renewables only 2.2%. (WEC)
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In the high emission scenario with 176% energy growth to 2050 on 1990 levels, new renewables are projected at best to supply : only 15-23% of total energy with an added 7-8% from hydro and traditional biomass. (WEC)
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In the low emission scenario with the smallest projected energy growth of 58% increase on 1990 levels by 2050 new renewables are projected to at best supply only 23-27% of total energy with an added 13% from hydro and traditional biomass. (WEC)
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In all scenarios fossil fuels are projected to continue as the main energy source to 2050 providing between 52-73% of total energy. (WEC)
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Fossil fuels will remain the primary energy source, supplying more than 90% of the increase in demand. Global oil demand will increase from 75 million barrels of oil a day in 2000 to 120 million barrels of oil a day in 2030 - an increase of 60%. Natural gas consumption will double between now and 2030. Coal's share of final energy use is projected to drop from 9% to 7%. Nuclear energy's share of primary demand will fall from 7% to 5%. Despite non-hydro renewables growing at 3.3% pa to 2030, they will still only make 'a small dent' in global energy demand by this time. (WEO2002/IEA)
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Oil's 40% share of total world energy consumption is projected to remain the same over the 1999-2020 period, albeit it is projected to grow from 75 million barrels of oil per day in 1999 to 119 million barrels of oil a day in 2020 constituting a 59% increase whilst gas use is projected to nearly double and coal use to fall from 22% of world primary energy consumption to 20%. The highest growth in nuclear generation is projected in the developing world, where electricity consumption from nuclear power is projected to increase by 4.7% pa between 1999 and 2020. (IEA2002/EIA)
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World reserves of economically recoverable coal are close to 1 trillion tonnes representing 200 years of production at current rates. Subsidies to the coal industry will remain an important element in some countries but coal's future will depend on its environmental acceptability. (WEO2001/IEA)
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The world's energy resources are sufficient to meet the projected growth in energy demand. Oil is ample but more supplies need to be identified to meet rising oil demand to 2030. Reserves of natural gas and coal are abundant and there is no lack of uranium for nuclear power. The physical potential for renewable energy production is also very large. (WEO2002/IEA)
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Massive investment will be required to support the growth in energy production and supply. Almost $4.2 trillion will be required for new power generation between now and 2030 with most of the investment needed in developing countries, who will be largely reliant on capital inflows from industrialised countries. (WEO2002/IEA)
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Renewable energy has the technical potential to supply a significant proportion of the world's energy but under current market conditions the economic potential is much lower. (WEO/IEA)
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Beyond 2020 the role of renewable energy in the global energy supply is likely to become much more important. The main focus of current research is on hydrogen production and use. Hydrogen technology offers the potential of large scale energy supply with minimal environmental impact. (WEO2001/IEA)
The Crucial Role of Governments
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Production of primary energy from renewable sources is expected to increase quickly over the next two decades however their share of total global energy supply will probably remain small in the absence of determined government interventions. Further cost reductions are needed to increase the use of renewables. (WEO2001/IEA)
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If fossil fuel prices do not increase sharply and if governments do not introduce radical new policies, few resources will be able to compete with fossil fuels in the near term. (WEO2001/IEA)
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To develop renewable energy resources will require sustained investment in infrastructure. If governments made substantial efforts to promote and subsidise renewables then their share of electricity generation could rise. (WEO2001/IEA)
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The extent to which governments encourage technologies that generate low or zero-carbon emissions and the costs involved are key issues in the long term. (WEO2001/IEA)
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Governments will play an important role in encouraging technological progress. Technology development and deployment are strongly influenced by government actions, including pricing and taxation policies and direct funding of research. Government policies aimed at reducing the risk of supply disruption or promoting more efficient markets will also affect the long term supply outlook. (WEO2001/IEA)
In the decades to come the majority of the substantial energy growth will occur in the developing countries with associated CO2 emission increases.
These countries will however require 'massive investment' in energy infrastructure and this will largely be sought from industrialized countries, who therefore may be able to encourage developing countries to embrace a greater use of renewable technologies.
Growth of renewable energy without public and private support will remain small - new renewables are projected to supply only 3% of total energy by 2020 unless intervention occurs.
Governments should impose penalties on carbon emissions, carbon taxes, introduce market frameworks to support renewable energy technologies and provide significants funds to support both R&D and capital plant cost in order to bring about the rapid transition from a fossil fuel energy sourced society to a renewable energy led world.
Global warming and climate change threatens our world and mankind. Significant resources should be applied to meet this world threat.
Summaries Of :
International Energy Outlook 2002
World Energy Outlook 2000, 2001 & 2002
Population Growth
Population projections are considered in many ways the back bone of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios and are one of the key indicators of the future state of the world.
Population projections are reasonably accurate in the near-to-medium term however the future is not completely predictable and surprises may occur, as has happened in the past - ie post-World War II baby boom, AIDS or the recent rapidity of fertility decline in developing countries.
Projections as to future greenhouse gas emissions do involve the consideration of cars and households, however the IPCC models are all based on regional population and, in some cases, labour-force projections.
World population rose to 1 billion in 1804 123 years later it was -
2 billion in 1927 33 years later it was -
3 billion in 1960 14 years later it was -
4 billion in 1974 14 years later it was -
5 billion in 1987 13 years later it was -
6 billion shortly before the millenium. (UN, 1998).
ie since 1960 an extra billion people have been added to the world population every 13/14 years.
The population of the developing regions increased from 1.71 billion in 1950 to 4.59 billion in 1996, with annual growth rates dropping from a peak of 2.5% in 1965 to 1.7% presently.
The population of the more-developed regions increased from 813 million to 1.18 billion over the same period, with annual growth rates dropping from 1.2% in 1950 to 0.4% presently. (UN, 1998)
Population distribution and growth thus differ markedly among major geographic regions. Latin America and the Caribbean was the fastest growing region between 1950 and 1970, followed by Africa, and this is projected to remain the case until 2050. (UN, 1998)
Since the IPCC was first convened in 1988, its Working Group III has generated two distinct series of emissions scenarios: the 1990 Scientific Assessment (SA90) series of four scenarios (Houghton et al., 1990), and the IS92 series of six scenarios (Houghton et al., 1992, 1995; Pepper et al., 1992). The four SA90 scenarios all used the same median population projection - the World Bank 1987 projection (Zachariah and Vu, 1988). The IS92a-f series made use of three different projection variants, the World Bank (World Bank, 1991) 1991 projection and the United Nations (UN, 1992) 1992 medium-high and medium-low projections.
The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) scenarios used published projections from the UN International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) along with the UN's Medium Long Range population projection.
United Nations Projections 2001
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The world population is projected to rise from 6.1bn to 9.3bn by 2050 due to rapid population growth and relatively high fertility levels in the world's 48 least developed countries as well as rising life expectancy everywhere.
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The world's population is estimated as growing by 1.2% a year, or 77m people, with six countries accounting for half of the increase: India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and Indonesia.
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The 48 least developed countries are expected to nearly triple their population, from 658m to 1.8bn which would intensify pressure on food and water resources in many parts of the developing world, and is also expected to exacerbate global warming and environmental degradation.
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The population of the less developed regions is projected to rise steadily from 4.9bn in 2000 to 8.2bn in 2050, which would mean that nearly 90% of the world population would live in the developing world. This projection depends on fertility continuing to decline in the less developed regions however if this did not occur the popluation of the less developed regions would reach 11.9bn.
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The UN figures suggest that within 50 years nine out of every 10 people will be living in a developing country. One in every six will be living in India where the current population of just over 1bn is projected to rise by 600m.
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Population levels in Europe and Japan are projected to decline sharply and by mid-century the populations of Germany and Japan will have fallen on current trends by 14%, Italy by 25% and Russia and Ukraine by between 28% and 40% but this trend will be mitigated to some degree by more immigration.
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The United States is projected to remain a prime target for migrants, with 1m people anticipated to enter the country each year and a projected population by 2050 of about 400m. At present it has a population of 280 million.
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Africa, one of the areas of biggest population growth, is projected to have three times as many people as Europe by 2050 - increasing its population from 800m now to 2bn Africans by 2050.
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The population explosion in Africa, Asia and Latin America would be even more dramatic but for the HIV/Aids epidemic and yet despite the expected 300m deaths in 50 years, the continent's population will still increase.
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The life expectancy gap between rich and poor countries appears to be closing. In less developed regions, life expectancy will increase by 12 years, to 75, in the next 50 years; in developed regions, it will rise by 7 years, from the current 75 years to 82. In Britain, life expectancy is currently 78 years, rising to 83 by 2050.
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One-fifth of all Europeans were aged 60 or more in 1998. By 2050 they may represent more than one-third of all adults, with children making up only 14% of the population.
The International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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The IIASA is the second body used by the IPCC to project population growth and associated emissions scenarios in the century ahead - considerations of an increasingly aging population, fertility rates and migration cause the IIASA to produce different possible scenarios .
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The lowest population projected with low fertility and high mortality would be 7.1 billion people by 2050 and 3.9 billion by 2100 .
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With medium fertility and medium mortality the world population is projected to be 9.9 billion by 2050 and 10.4 billion by 2100.
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With high fertility and low mortality the worst projected scenario is 13.3 billion people by 2050 and 22.7 billion people by 2100.
Summary
The world's population is projected to substantially grow - the majority of the growth occurring in the developing world. This population growth will increase the demand for energy and also as the developing world's economies expand this will result in further increased energy consumption.
If this global demand for increased energy occurs with the continuing use of fossil fuels then carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere will concomitantly increase.
At this point in time it is crucial that the developed world set the lead embracing renewable energy instead of fossil fuels and that in the coming decades the developing world follows in the use of renewable energy rather than oil, coal and gas.
The developing world is projected to require massive investment in order to develop its energy industry and this investment will largely be sought from the industrialized world - hence it is important that developing countries are encouraged to embrace renewable technologies where possible and development finance be made available for such investments
The World Energy Council determined :
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between 2-3% of world GDP is invested in the energy sector
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reforming countries apply 7-9% of GDP to the energy sector
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developing countries invest 3-4% of GDP in the energy sector
The World Bank estimates that $1 trillion is needed this decade and $4 trillion during the next 30 years to meet the developing countries electricity needs - These resources need to be applied as investments in renewable energy rather than fossil fuels if world temperatures are indeed to be stabilized.
It is crucial that the growth in energy consumption in the developing world be met using renewable energy to prevent vast emission increases. The developed world must take the lead.
Loss Of CO2 Absorption
c. 1999 Topham Picturepoint
'16.1 million hectares of natural forest were lost each year during the 1990's (UN/FAO) For every tree that falls less carbon dioxide is withdrawn from our atmosphere and carbon dioxide which the tree has stored is released into the atmosphere so increasing global warming..'
Not only are carbon dioxide emissions projected to substantially INCREASE but to compound the problem the amount of CO2 withdrawn from the atmosphere is projected to DECREASE as a consequence of humans' actions as well as through the effect of those actions on life systems :
Carbon dioxide is absorbed by :
1. The oceans
2. Trees vegetation and soil
and methane is absorbed by :
3. Hydroxyl
The Oceans
The oceans contain approx fifty times more CO2 than is contained in the atmosphere. As the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere increases, ocean and land will take up a decreasing fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. So that if only 2% of CO2 were no longer absorbed by the oceans then the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere might accordingly DOUBLE. (Gore/Houghton)
The heat content of the upper 300m of the world's oceans have warmed by an average of 0.3 to 0.15C between the mid-1950's and 1998. Extension of the analysis to the upper 3,000 m shows that similar changes in heat content have occurred over intermediate and deep waters, especially in the North and South Atlantic and the South Indian Oceans. Recent surveys of the Arctic Ocean reveal that its sub-surface water is up to 1C warmer. (NODC/NOAA)
The Hadley Centre in the UK projects that by 2100 the ocean's ability to absorb CO2 will indeed be weakened - this will leave more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere so accelerating global warming.
Trees And Vegetation
Trees
Trees absorb significant amounts of CO2 however the world's forests are being decimated -
Deforestation
Forests cover about 3,870 million ha, or 30 % of the earth's land area. Tropical and subtropical forests comprise 56% of the world's forests, while temperate and boreal forests account for 44%. Forest plantations make up only about 5% of all forests; the rest is natural forest. The estimated net annual change in forest area worldwide in the 1990s was - 9.4 million ha, representing the difference between the estimated annual rate of deforestation of 14.6 million ha and the estimated annual rate of forest area increase of 5.2 million ha. During the 1990s, the loss of natural forests was 16.1 million hectares (ha) per year, of which 15.2 million occurred in the tropics. (Food and Agricultural Organisation of the UN (UN/FAO))
At the current rate of deforestation virtually all of the tropical rain forests will be gone partway through this century. (Gore)
Climate Change
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Climate change is now an additional pressure on the world's remaining forests since a change of only 1C in temperature can substantially affect a tree's productivity - a significant proportion of trees this century will be subject to unsuitable climate conditions. (Houghton)
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If CO2 levels double up to 65% of the current boreal forest area may be affected. (Miko)
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In Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas the warmer, drier conditions caused by climate change would result in a decline and die-back of the forested part of the regions and would reduce timber mass in the forest by 10% over twenty years. (DOE/US/Bowes,Sedjo)
Fires
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Not only do warmer temperatures create an unsuitable climate for many forest types but also the dry conditions that result can cause severe forest fires that further decimate woodlands - (UN/FAO)
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In 1997 and 1998, the latter being the warmest year on record, large areas of forest around the world caught fire following prolonged drought conditions. The extent of these fires and the damage attributed to them were so immense that one United States newspaper described 1998 as "the year the earth caught fire". (UN/FAO)
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Millions of hectares burned and smoke blanketed large regions such as Central America and Southeast Asia, disrupting air and sea navigation and causing serious threats to public safety. Seventy people were killed by the fires in Mexico alone. Ecosystems that are not generally subject to fires, such as the Amazon rain forest in Brazil and the cloud forest of Chiapas in Mexico, sustained considerable damage. (FAO)
Windstorms
The increase in number and severity of wind storms also affects the world's trees - in 1987 the wind storm that struck the United Kingdom caused 15 million trees to fall as well as striking parts of Europe.
The Amazon
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The greatest cause for concern however regarding the world's forests comes from a report released by the UK's Hadley Centre, which projected that the Amazon forest, which currently absorbs vast amounts of the carbon we emit, may dry out due to increased temperature and then either die back or be subject to forest fires. Not only would the Amazon stop absorbing carbon dioxide which we are emitting but worse by 2050 it could release billions of tonnes of carbon that it currently stores back into the atmosphere so increasing global warming and climate change in an escalating and irreversible cycle. (Cox, Betts et al, Hadley Centre)
These forests are currently absorbing increased amounts of carbon dioxide as Nature's attempt to offset the increased emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - however once these forests fall the trees will no longer exist to absorb the carbon dioxide and additionally and most seriously the billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide that the forests currently store will be released back into the atmosphere.
Additionally the warming of the exposed forest floor leads to a release of huge quantities of methane and CO2 and the increase of dead tree trunks and branches leads to an explosion of termites, which also then produce methane. (Gore)
Vegetation
Plants' ability to absorb CO2 is diminished through clearing of land for development and also through man induced loss of ozone in our atmosphere, which results in increased amounts of ultraviolet radiation reaching plants that affects their ability to remove huge quantities of CO2 through photosynthesis.
Soil
Soil is the largest terrestrial global carbon pool, estimated to be about one-and-a-half trillion tons. Carbon is cycled from the soil into the atmosphere and back into the soil and this exchange between the soil and the atmosphere is 10 times as large as that emitted by fossil fuel use.
The concern is that as the world warms the soils uptake of carbon may be reduced and in time it may begin to release this carbon back into the atmosphere.
Scientists at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre project that by 2050 with 'business as usual' the land biosphere as a whole is projected to switch from being a weakened absorber of CO2 (a sink) to a significant producer (a source), releasing large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere both from the Amazon but also from the soil, which will have the effect of accelerating the rate of CO2 increase in the atmosphere over this period.
Hydroxyl
In our air there exists a natural 'detergent' called hydroxyl which is used to cleanse our atmosphere of carbon monoxide and methane - As more and more carbon monoxide has been put into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels and forests the hydroxyl agent has been overwhelmed trying to absorb all the additional carbon monoxide. Hence it is used up before it can get to methane (Gore) - this is resulting in increasing levels of methane which is twenty one times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2. (IPCC) Methane has increased by 151% since the beginning of the industrial era and is now third after CO2 and water vapour as a greenhouse gas.
We are increasing the amount of CO2 we put into the atmosphere through increased energy use due to population and economic growth but at the very same time the amount of CO2 and methane being withdrawn from our air is being reduced........
Positive Feedbacks Loops
Increased Water Vapour
Cloud Feedback
Trees
Reduced Ice Cover
Warming Oceans
Thawing Tundra
Methane Hydrates
Positive Feedback Escalation
Positive Positive Feedback
'Nature exhibits a recurring pattern of interdependency among the parts of the ecological system ... if we upset the ecological balance of the entire earth in one way, we will upset it in related ways as well.... because all its parts exist in a delicate balance of interdependency.' (Gore)
A positive feed back loop is the term used when a process occurs, which produces an effect and that effect then increases the initial process so creating a larger effect and so on - so that the cycle is self perpetuating and magnifies. It is a clear example of the interdependency of different parts of Nature's systems.
There are many potential positive feed back loops with global warming, which could significiantly increase the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere thus increasing future temperatures and exacerbating climate change :
Increased Water Vapour
Water vapour in the air causes two positive feed backs -
The first is that as the atmosphere warms due to increased carbon dioxide and methane levels, it causes more evaporation from the ocean and from wet land surfaces - the warmer the atmosphere is, the more water it contains so that it will have a higher water vapour content.
The more water vapour there is, the more heat is trapped in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere), which increases the warmth of the atmosphere still further - causing yet more water vapour to form, which traps more heat so reinforcing the cycle - this is a positive feedback loop.
Water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas, which on its own would increase the global average temperature rise due to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide by about 60%. (Houghton)
The second positive feedback caused by increased water vapour is that the increase in the amount of water vapour in our lower atmosphere increases the warmth of the atmosphere and this in turn causes the stratosphere to cool - the stratosphere is above the troposphere and is found 11 to 48 km above the Earth where gases become thinner and where the ozone layer is found - between 16 to 48 km above Earth. (Suzuki)
As the stratosphere is made cooler due to the warmer troposphere, it causes more ice crystals to form in the ozone layer especially in the polar regions, which results in more ozone depletion as the ice mingles with ozone in the presence of chlorofluorocarbons depleting the ozone.
Less ozone means more UV radiation strikes vegetation, which increases global warming and increases the evaporation from the ocean and land surfaces, which increases the amount of water vapour content, which further cools the stratosphere causing more ice crystals so that the cycle is reinforced and magnifies.
This is a positive feed back loop - the increase of CO2 leads to more water vapour/ice crystals leads to less ozone and more uv strikes vegetation - so less CO2 is absorbed so the atmosphere warms more causing more water vapour/ice crystals and so on ........
Cloud Feedback
Clouds may work both for and/or against global warming -
Clouds absorb and reflect a certain amount of the sun's radiation so reducing the amount of radiation that strikes the Earth and in this way they help to keep the atmosphere cooler than it would otherwise be.
Clouds also absorb and emit long wave radiation thus warming the surface -
Hence clouds work for and against global warming - there is still uncertainty however as to whether clouds will ultimately significantly increase warming or the opposite -
It is likely that there has been a 2% increase in cloud cover over mid to high latitude land areas during the 20th century (IPCC)(13).
Trees
Deforestation, being the cutting down of trees, which store carbon results in the carbon being released into the atmosphere. When large areas of rain forest are destroyed the amount of rain which is recycled to nearby areas is radically reduced, which deprives those areas of the moisture required to sustain them, creating a reinforcing drought cycle, which kills more trees, thus further reducing rainfall and further accelerating the death of adjacent trees.
Further the removal of the forest canopy enables the sun's rays to warm the forest floor which leads to the emission of vast amounts of methane and CO2. The substantial increase in the number of dead tree trunks leads to an explosion of termites, which also then produce vast quantities of methane which further increases global warming. (Gore)
The warmer temperatures make forests drier, which increases forest fires, which release more carbon into the atmosphere, which increases temperatures, which may cause trees to die back and/or catch fire, which feeds the cycle.........
The Hadley Centre in the UK project that the Amazon, which is currently absorbing increased amounts of CO2 will die back and as a result by 2050 will begin to release vast amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere so accelerating global warming.
Reduced Ice Cover
Ice and snow REFLECT most of the sun's rays sending the heat back out into space - as the ice melts the heat is now ABSORBED by the land or ocean surface thus leading to further increased warming. As the atmosphere warms, more ice melts, more heat is absorbed, which causes more warming and so the process continues as a potentially ever escalating cycle.
Oceans
Some of the most dangerous and powerful feedback loops involve the oceans and are still matters of intense scientific inquiry.
As the C02 concentration of the atmosphere increases, ocean and land will take up a decreasing fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. (IPCC)(14) This will further increase projected atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
As the ocean absorbs less CO2 more CO2 is left in the atmosphere, which will increase global warming, which may further reduce the amount of CO2 the oceans absorb and so on.
The oceans contain fifty times more CO2 than is contained in the atmosphere - so if only 2% were no longer absorbed there, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere may accordingly double (Gore/Houghton).
The Hadley Centre in the UK project that by 2100 the ocean's ability to absorb CO2 will be weakened and that by this time the oceans will only be absorbing the amount of CO2 that is released from land feedbacks such as forests and soils. Not human related quantities of CO2.
Frozen tundra contains vast amounts of methane and if the tundra thaws it is expected that these vast amounts of methane will be released into our atmosphere - each molecule of methane is twenty one times as powerful as a greenhouse gas as CO2. If the huge quantities of methane were released they would boost global warming and world temperatures, which would reinforce the cycle - more tundra would thaw and more methane would be released - temperatures would rise further .........
In 2001 the United Nations Environment Programme reported that permafrost in Arctic regions was melting and that in Siberia was now releasing quantities of methane - suggesting the process has already started.
Methane hydrate is an ice like mix of methane and water where methane molecules are held under pressure inside an envelope of water molecules, which occurs when temperatures are low and pressure is high. Hydrates form under sediment or sea water and can be found at relatively shallow depths - if the temperature of the sediment or water surrounding the hydrate rises to a certain level then methane gas is released.
The US Geological Survey have estimated that there are 10,000 billion tonnes of carbon in the store of methane hydrates in the world, which means it is one of the largest stores of carbon - most of it lies out of reach in sediments under deep ocean where temperatures are unlikely to change in the near future whatever happens at the surface -
However in the Arctic methane hydrates exist just a few hundred metres below the surface of the water where up to hundreds of billions of tonnes may be stored - If only a small percentage of the methane hydrate in the Arctic were to be released it would substantially escalate global warming, further increasing sea surface temperatures, further releasing more methane............. (Leggett/The Carbon War)
There is much within our world, which is outside the predictable knowledge of Man - there are many uncertainties as to what the world's climate may do or not do given an unprecedented increase in greenhouse gas emissions - it is feasible that some or all of the above feedbacks may occur to varying degrees and at varying speeds however if all were to occur or even just a few it could result in a co-generating feedback loop as each of the different feedbacks feed not only themselves but each other - causing rapid increases in world temperatures and dramatic climatic effects -
All the positive feed back loops delineated above ultimately produce negative results for our world - is there a positive positive feedback loop that can ultimately rescue our world from an increasingly desperate future ?
As Al Gore observes in 'Earth In The Balance' :
'We need a positive feedback loop that feeds on itself in a good way and accelerates the pace of positive changes now so urgently needed.'
Could it be that if each concerned person sought to change to renewable energy, and called on suppliers and governments to provide more renewable energy as opposed to fossil fuels and if each of these people made a firm commitment to get five people and companies to do likewise - then a positive ripple effect may result to the benefit of our so damaged world .....
Our World
c. 1999 Topham Picturepoint
'Global warming and climate change are projected to cause 150 million displaced refugees by 2050 - (Myers & Kent) Desperate people seeking, food, water and shelter ... International conflict and possible wars are anticipated as people fight over resources ..'
Our world is already being radically affected by global waming. It is affecting the inter-connected web of life and disrupting our world's climate creating unprecedented and likely irreversible changes :
Our Atmosphere
Our atmosphere is being filled up with more and more greenhouse gases every hour of every day although the air we have is limited. The mix of gases that make up our air have been relatively stable throughout hundreds of thousands of years but now we are perilously altering the balance by substantially increasing certain gases - notably carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide which are causing global warming. The IPCC state:
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In the last 420,000 years CO2 had an approximate range of 180-280ppm. By 1999 CO2 levels had risen to 367ppb, a 31% increase. The present CO2 concentration has not been exceeded during 420,000 years and likely not during the past 20 million years. CO2 concentrations may rise from their pre-industrial level of 280ppm to a maximum of 1260 ppm by 2100 which includes a 30% contingency.
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Methane, which is twenty one times as strong a greenhouse gas as CO2 has been increased by 151% since preindustrial times changing from 700ppb to 1760ppb however at worst it is projected it could increase to 3730 ppb by 2100.
Yet it is our atmosphere that has enabled life to exist on Earth - which distinguishes Earth from neighbouring planets such as Venus, Jupiter and Mars that have no evident life forms, that are instead barren planets devoid of life.
It is our atmosphere that gives us humans life and yet we are perilously tampering with it, causing effects that are unprecedented and possibly irreversible in mankind's lifetime.
Our Seas
Our seas are warming - global ocean heat content has increased since the late 1950's, the period for which adequate observations of sub-surface ocean temperatures have been available.
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The warming of the oceans is considered to be causing the oceans thermohaline circulation of warm water to the Poles and cold water to the equator to slow down - the outflow of cold water flowing south under the Gulf Stream from the Arctic has been reduced by 20% in the last fifty years and is considered to be lessening at a rate of 2-4% pa (Marine Laboratory Aberdeen). It is projected that the oceans thermohaline circulation is likely to weaken but not shut down before 2100 however thereafter it could irreversibly shut down - When it previously closed down it caused an Ice Age with 1km of ice over New York in the US. (Gore) The Hadley Centre at the UK Met Office project that the ocean thermohaline circulation will weaken by 25% by 2100. The UK Climate Impacts Programme project that not enough is known about the factors that control the ocean circulation and hence it is impossible to be completely confident about predictions, especially in the longer term.
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The warming seas are also destroying coral reefs - Prolonged exposure to even minor rises in temperature of even less than 1C causes coral bleaching and may result in coral death. 27% of the world's coral has already been lost - 16% of this within 9 mths alone with the largest single cause being climate related coral bleaching. 58% of the world's coral reefs are further threatened ( UNEP ) with up to 80% at risk in the most populated areas. (Global Environmental Outlook 2000/UN). A further knock on effect of this is that reefs harbour 25% of all the world's fish species whilst the loss of coral will also threaten over 3000 species that depend on the reefs for their survival.
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The warming atmosphere and warming ocean is also causing ice caps and glaciers to melt, which further increases global warming as the ice reflects the solar rays but water and land surfaces absorb them. Species such as polar bears and penguins are also threatened by the changing habitat. The melting of land ice and expansion of water in the sea due to warmer temperatures increases sea level which is now seriously affecting human communities.
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Sea level is expected to rise by up to 88cm this century which will inundate many regions - Tuvalu in the Pacific ocean is the first place where rising sea levels are forcing the 11,000 inabitants to leave. Australia refused the refugees - New Zealand has agreed to accept them. (BBC)
Our Land Areas
Our land areas are being significantly affected by humans and by global warming - the changes occurring will escalate as temperatures increase -
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Significant changes are occurring with land use patterns - land use change and deforestation accounts for approx 25% of human induced global warming. The soil is exposed and then washed away by rainfall to clog up rivers, which increases flooding in the surrounding areas.
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Land degradation has affected some 1900 million hectares of land world-wide - 500m hectares in Africa , including 65% of the region's agricultural land. The rate at which arable land is being lost is increasing and is currently 30-35 times the historical rate. The loss of potential productivity due to soil erosion world wide is estimated to be equivalent to some 20 million tons of grain per year. (Global Environment Outlook 2000 (GEO)/UN)
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Increasing temperatures increase drought and desertification which is threatening the arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas of the globe - the drylands which cover 40% of the Earth's land surface. Soil degradation in the drylands affects or puts at risk the livelihoods of more than 1 billion people who are directly dependent on the land for their habitat and source of livelihood. (GEO/UN)
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Desertification is increasing at a rate of approx 60,000 km2 each year or about 0.1% per year of the total drylands. (The World Environment) Approx 70% of drylands are threatened by desertification - over 25% of the world's land area. (Houghton)
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The maximum rates of spread for some sedentary species, including large tree-species may be slower than the predicted rates of change in climatic conditions. ( UNEP )
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Changes in rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration as well as increased frequency of fire and storms will result in major changes in vegetation types - forests may disappear in certain regions at a faster rate than the potential rate of migration to or re-growth in new areas. ( UNEP )
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Large parts of the Amazon will dry out and die back as well as becoming more susceptible to forest fires . (Hadley Centre)
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Sea level rise and changes in the hydrological balance will affect coastal marshes - where they back on to agricultural or urban land they will be prevented from retreating naturally. ( UNEP )
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Low lying islands and other regions will suffer loss of land. ( UNEP )
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In addition to causing a warming effect, increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide are known to increase rates of photosynthesis in many plants, as well as improving water use efficiency. In this way the climate changes may increase growth rates in some natural and agricultural communities. ( UNEP )
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A lengthening of vegetative growing season by 1.2 to 3.6 days per decade is projected to occur, lakes and rivers will warm due to a shortening in the duration of ice cover, alpine herbs will move upwards, wildlife will die and their range will be reduced due to heat stress.
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Crop yields can drop 10% for every 1C temperature rise. Crops are damaged by heat at 30C and become sterile at 40C - a 100% reduction over 10C. ( UNEP /International Rice Research Institute)
Every time a plant or tree becomes extinct or a region loses its capacity to provide habitats for plantlife and species, or its capacity to provide crops, there is a significant and vital loss from our world. It is not likely these processes can or would ever be reversed .........
Our Forests
Our forests are being destroyed - the worlds' trees and forests are precious components of our world - they are also a store for billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide - they absorb carbon dioxide from our atmosphere but as trees are cut down, burnt or die back due to increased temperatures, the carbon dioxide they have stored is then released back into the atmosphere.
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Roughly 80% of forests that originally covered the Earth have been cleared or degraded, and logging, mining, or other large-scale developments threaten 39% of what remains. ( UNEP , 2000)
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More than 30 million acres of tropical forest are destroyed each year. (WRI, UNEP ) 20% of the world's tropical forests were cleared in just 30 years time between 1960-1990. (WRI)
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The largest and earliest impacts induced by climate change are likely to occur in boreal forests, through changes in weather-related disturbance regimes and nutrient cycling. (IPCC)
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Nearly 75% of all threatened bird species are found in forests (Stattersfield et al., 1998), and tropical forests are the most species-rich terrestrial habitats. An estimated 90% of the world's species occur in moist tropical forests, which cover only 8% of the land area. ( UNEP , 2000)
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The UK Hadley Centre project the Amazon rainforest will die back due to increase temperatures and by 2050 will start to release some of the billions of tonnes of carbon it currently stores, which will accelerate global warming.
For every tree that falls of the millions that are being felled world- wide these trees no longer exist to withdraw CO2 from our atmosphere AND each tree that falls releases quantities of CO2 into our air so increasing global warming ........
Our Species
Global warming increases the risk of wildfires, increases the death of coral reefs due to 'bleaching' associated with warmer water temperatures, increases floods and droughts and with all these impacts species are either destroyed directly or by the destruction of their habitat, which sustains them. Our species are being destoyed and the rate of extinction is increasing as species lose their habitats or are unable to adapt to climate change - Species already threatened by the destruction of their habitats, pollution, overexploitation of forests, fisheries and wildlife, often have had their resilience reduced, which weakens their ability to adapt to climate change.
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The survival of species in a world of rising temperatures will depend on their ability to migrate from increasingly difficult climatic conditions to new areas that offer suitable habitats. (WWF)
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In the USA, more than a third of habitats in Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon, Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas could alter due to global warming. (WWF)
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If CO2 concentrations double a 20% loss of species may occur in the Arctic and mountain habitats due to climate change reducing the size of habitat areas. Vulnerable regions include Russia's Taymyr Peninsula, parts of eastern Siberia, northern Alaska, Canadian boreal/taiga ecosystems and the southern Canadian Arctic islands, northern Fennoscandia, western Greenland, eastern Argentina, Lesotho, the Tibetan plateau, and southeast Australia. These losses would be on top of those occurring as a result of overall habitat reduction. (WWF)
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Climate change will lead to a poleward movement of the southern and northern boundaries of fish distribution - there will be a loss of habitat for cold and cool water fish and a gain in habitat for warm water fish.
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Populations of many species are already threatened and are expected to be placed at greater risk due to climate change making areas of current habitat unsuitable, as well as land-use change that fragments habitats. Some species that currently are critically endangered will become extinct, and the majority of those that are 'endangered or vulnerable' will become much rarer in the 21st century. This may have the greatest effect on the lowest income human societies, which rely on wildlife for subsistence living.
OUR CLIMATE IS OWNED BY NO ONE YET
NEEDED BY EVERYONE
Conflict
Another implication of global warming is that it is anticipated to potentially lead to war over such resources as land, water and food as they become scarce due to increasing temperatures. In 1998 at the World Government conference in Toronto on 'The Changing Atmosphere - Implications for Global Security' a statement was released :
" Best predictions available indicate potentially severe economic and social dislocation for present and future generations which will worsen international tensions and increase risk of conflicts among and within nations. It is imperative to act now."
Refugees
There are projected to be 150 million environmental refugees by 2050 (3m pa) (Myers and Kent) due to rising sea levels or people seeking food or water. Tuvalu - a tiny island country in the Pacific ocean is the first place where people are being forced to leave due to rising sea levels - 11,000 people began migrating in 2002 - initially refused entry in Australia they have now been accepted by New Zealand. As sea level has risen by 20-30 cm during the twentieth century Tuvalu has experienced low lying flooding so that now saltwater intrusion is adversely affecting its drinking water and food production whilst coastal erosion is advancing upon the nine islands that make up the country.
The Maldives is also under imminent threat with 311,000 inhabitants. Most of the 1,196 islands are barely 2 metres above sea level which means that even a 1 metre rise in sea level could result in a storm surge overwhelming the islands.
Which country will be willing to accept the peoples of the Maldives when the rising waters force them to leave - Or the millions of people who are under threat in Bangladesh -
By 2050 it is projected there may be 150 million climate change refugees.
Where will these climate refugees go?
OUR CLIMATE IS OWNED BY NO ONE YET
NEEDED BY EVERYONE
Economic Loss & The Insurance Industry
c.2000 Topham Picturepoint
As climate change escalates in severity so too will global economic and insured losses
Reasons For The Increase In Disasters And Losses
Developing Countries The Most Affected
Who Bears The Cost Of Disasters
What May Happen As
Disasters And Losses Escalate
With Climate Change
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Things appear to be getting worse, in two ways: natural disasters appear to be becoming more frequent and their effects more severe. (GEO2000 UNEP )
Increase since the 1950's/60's
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The number of natural catastrophes has almost tripled since the 1960s, increasing the overall cost to the world's economies 7.3 fold, and the cost to the insurance industry 13.9 fold. (Munich Re 2003)
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The number of disasters has increased more than four fold since the 1960's from an average 44 disasters each year in the 60's to an average 181 disasters each year in the 90's. (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium)
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The 90's decade saw 86 major natural catastrophes, including floods, earthquakes and hurricanes, that required outside assistance because of extensive deaths. By contrast, there were only 20 such events in the 1950s. (Worldwatch www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/ www.worldwatch.org ) Major catastrophes have increased over 4 fold.
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Since the 1960's the number of droughts have increased three fold, the number of windstorms have increased five fold and the number of floods have increased almost six fold. (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium)
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In the 1960's 23 million people on average each year were affected by disasters, which increased to 206 million people affected each year in the 1990's. In the 1960's 3 million people were affected on average each year by windstorm disasters whilst in the 1990's this had increased to an average of 24 million people affected each year. In the 1960's 7 million people on average each year were affected by floods, which has increased to 149 million people affected each year in the 1990's. (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium)
Information From The Centre For
Research On The Epidemiology Of Disasters
(CRED)
Since 1988 the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research
on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) has been
maintaining an Emergency Events Database - EM-DAT:
The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database -
www.em.dat.net - Université Catholique de
Louvain - Brussels - Belgium-
The EM-DAT data is included in the Human Development Report (UNDP), the World Health Report (WHO), The World Disaster Report (International Federation of the Red Cross publication with data also drawn from the US Committee for Refugees (USCR)) and other reports.
The summaries and conclusions below have been compiled by Our World Foundation using the EM-DAT data with the approval of CRED.
|
|
1960's |
1990's |
Increase
(Incr)/(Decr) |
|
Number Of
Natural |
44 |
181 |
4.5 fold incr |
|
Number of
People |
207,939 |
37,635 |
Approx 80% decr |
|
Number of
People |
23,311,610 |
206,899,343 |
Approx 9 fold incr |
|
Number of Droughts |
7 |
12 |
No evident trend |
|
Number of
People |
12,303,985 |
34,806,039 |
Approx 3 fold incr |
|
Number of Windstorms |
11 |
57 |
5 fold incr |
|
Number of
People |
3,061,200 |
24,418,544 |
Approx 8 fold incr |
|
Number of Floods |
13 |
76 |
Approx 6 fold incr |
|
Number of
People |
6,964,106 |
148,944,435 |
21 fold incr |
At present on average an approximate 183 million extra people each year are affected by disasters than were affected in the 1960's.
Inevitably, as the number of disasters substantially increase and the number of people affected by disasters significantly increases, the amount of economic and insured losses will significantly escalate as has already been witnessed to date.
Increase in Disasters in the 1980's/1990's
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The number of disasters (defined as annual requests from states for federal disaster declarations) has roughly doubled in the United States since the early 1980s. (IPCC)(15)
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There were 13 billion dollar disasters in the US between 1980 and 1990, between 1991 and 2001 there were 39 - meaning that major catastrophic weather related events have tripled in number in just two decades. (NOAA Data)
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From 1991-2000 disasters from droughts, wind-storms and floods