Overview
Climate change is changing our world - without resolution of this global crisis the Earth as we know it may not be sustained.
The Nature & Scale Of The Problem
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The global average surface temperature (the average of near surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature) has increased since 1861. Over the 20th century the increase has been 0.6C + or - 0.2C.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1)
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The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 C over the period 1990 to 2100.(IPCC)(2)
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Based on recent global model simulations, it is very likely that nearly all land areas will warm more rapidly than the global average, particularly those at northern high latitudes in the cold season. Most notable of these is the warming in the northern regions of North America, and northern and central Asia, which exceeds global mean warming in each model by more than 40%. (IPCC)(2)
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Climate models indicate that the local warming over Greenland will be one to three times the global average. (IPCC)(3)
The primary cause of global warming and emission of these greenhouse gases is the burning and use of fossil fuels - oil, coal and gas - for the world's energy including electricity and transport.
About three-quarters of the anthropogenic (caused by humans) emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere during the past 20 years is due to fossil fuel burning. The rest is predominantly due to land-use change, especially deforestation. (IPCC)(4)
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Global warming is already severely affecting the world - affecting the distribution of rainfall, causing floods, droughts and increased desertification, causing sea level to rise, causing loss of habitats and species, undermining the ocean's thermohaline circulation and threatening die back of trees in the Amazon . It is going to be very difficult for humans and ecosystems to adapt to the changes caused for the projected rate of warming this century is very likely greater than any time over the last 10,000 years. By 2050 there are projected to be an estimated 150 million environmental refugees worldwide (3m pa on average) due to sea level rise and increased flooding and droughts. (Myers & Kent)
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Global warming is also having an influence on the severity and frequency of disasters : Between the 1960's and 1990's the number of natural catastrophes has almost tripled. (Munich Re) In the 1990's an extra 183 million people were affected by disasters on average each year as compared to the 1960's. (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium) Additonally global economic losses from catastrophic events have increased 7.3 fold and insured losses increased 13.9 fold between the 1960's and 1993- 2002. (Munich Re) Part of the observed upward trend in disaster losses over the past 50 years is linked to socioeconomic factors, such as population growth, increased wealth, and urbanization in vulnerable areas, and part is linked to climatic factors such as the observed changes in precipation and flooding events. (IPCC)(5)
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If carbon dioxide (CO2) levels double damages could cost world nations on average about 1.5% of their GDP. Developed nations may incur lesser damages than this whilst developing countries may incur considerably more. CO2 levels are expected to have doubled from their preindustrial level by 2050.
Temperatures have risen by a global average of 0.6C since 1900 - This relatively small global average temperature increase is already having a significant impact on the world's climate, ecosystems, species and peoples.Temperatures may increase by up to almost TEN TIMES THIS AMOUNT this century by up to 5.8C unless effective action is taken.
What scale of damage will this cause to our world, its peoples, species and ecosystems ?
We are turning up the world's thermostat and will not be able to turn it back down...
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions
In 1990 the IPCC identified that in order to stabilise atmospheric concentrations would require an eventual reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 60-80%. The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) agreed by over 160 countries at the Earth Summit in 1992 has as its Objective the stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level and on a timescale that is consistent with sustainable development. To stabilise carbon dioxide concentrations (carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas) will require reductions in emissions to a small fraction of current emissions . The UK Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution in its Energy Report published in 2000 addressed the reductions in emissions that would be required to meet the FCCC Objective while recognising that industrialisation in developing countries would lead to some increase in their emissions. They recommended that a developed country such as the UK would need to reduce its emissions by 60% from 1990 levels by the year 2050 and 80% by 2100.
By 2030 however CO2 emissions are projected to increase by 70% on today's levels - nearly a 90% increase on 1990 levels. (WEO2002/IEA) 66-72% of the increased global emissions to 2020 are projected to come from developing countries as they continue to rely heavily on coal and fossil fuels and expand their economies. (WEO/IEA/IEO/EIA) By 2050 with business as usual CO2 emissions are projected to increase by up to 152% on 1990 levels. (WEC)
The Kyoto Protocol
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The Kyoto Protocol is an important and vital first step in seeking to secure international commitments, which would enforce countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to stop global warming. It must first be ratified. Amongst the developed nations Australia, the United States and Russia are still to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. - If however Russia were to commit,the Protocol could come into force. To achieve the significant emissions reductions necessary under Kyoto it will require the significant deployment of alternative sources of energy for countries may not wish to commit to substantial emissions reductions, until such time as alternative energy sources are in place, so as to ensure their economic growth. Carbon sequestration from fossil fuel sources may serve as a possible contribution to reducing emissions however it will add to the cost and can not constitute the whole solution. As a consequence renewable energy and energy efficient technologies must be rapidly and significantly expanded if climate change is to be mitigated.
Renewable Energy
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Since about three quarters of global warming in the past 20 years has been caused by the use of fossil fuels to supply the world's energy - the primary solution to global warming is the transfer to alternative sources of energy - renewable energy sources. At present however only 13.8% of the world's total primary energy is supplied by renewable energy sources. (IEA) By 2030 assuming continuation of present government policies the world share of renewable energy is projected to decline to 12.5%, due principally to a slow down in growth of combustible renewables and waste (to 0.8% pa) caused by a shift from traditional biomass to modern forms of energy in developing countries and some reduction in the growth of hydropower (1.6% pa) which will be less than overall energy growth (1.7% pa). (IEA 2002). By 2050 only 23-40% of global energy is projected to be supplied by renewables - the higher amount if sustainability is fully embraced. By 2050 fossil fuels are projected to still be the dominant source of global energy. (WEC)
The Need For Action
To reduce global CO2 emissions by 60-80% requires our changing our source of energy from fossil fuels to renewable energy in the coming decades - Current projections however do not anticipate any such significant transfer even by 2050. It is proposed that to stimulate more rapid change requires Government intervention (IEA) and the raising of awareness about climate change amongst the general public to accelerate the solutions.
Article 6 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change expressly delineates the need for member states to raise awareness 'at the national, regional and sub-regional levels and to co-operate in and promote, at the international level the development and exchange of educational and public awareness material on climate change and its effects'.
Our World Foundation is proposing the need for a UK/European pilot Art 6 Climate Change Communications Programme to raise awareness amongst the general public, business and public sectors about the cause, severity and solutions to climate change to stimulate support for renewable energy and energy saving. Long term it is proposed a full European and then global programme could be implemented.
Perhaps only by raising awareness amongst the energy consumer and market place may change be brought about and brought about in time.