Our World Foundation

c.1999 Topham Picturepoint

Effects of Global Warming
and Climate Change

'Each year in the 1990's 183 million EXTRA people on average were affected by disasters as were affected in the 1960's. Part of the reason for this increase is due to population growth and more people living in urban areas, and part is due to climatic factors such as increased rainfall and flooding. OFDA/CRED Data.

How many millions more will suffer flooding, drought and sea level rise as temperatures rise by up to almost TEN TIMES the current increase this century ?'

In 2003 the heatwave that struck Europe caused temperatures of over 40C in France, resulting in over 20,000 deaths and severe forest fires. It indicates that the rise in regional temperatures, which are annually breaking new records, bears no relationship to the global average rise of 0.6C. How high will regional temperature rise if the global average temperature increases by up to 5.8C this century ?

Available observational evidence indicates that regional changes in climate, particularly increases in temperature, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. Examples of observed changes include shrinkage of glaciers, thawing of permafrost, later freezing and earlier break-up of ice on rivers and lakes, lengthening of mid to high-latitude growing seasons, poleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges, declines of some plant and animal populations, and earlier flowering of trees, emergence of insects and egg-laying in birds. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1)

Although a few effects of projected climate change will be positive, i.e. less deaths from winter cold and increased crop yields in some regions with small temperature increases due to the extra carbon dioxide 'fertilizing' such crops, most of the effects will be negative.

RAINFALL & FLOODING

STORMS CYCLONES & HURRICANES

OCEANS

SEA LEVEL RISE

ICE CAPS & GLACIERS

WATER DROUGHT & FAMINE

ECOSYSTEMS

HUMANS

COUNTRIES

LARGE SCALE & POSSIBLE IRREVERSIBLE IMPACTS

SOCIAL DISRUPTION

Rainfall & Flooding

The most widespread direct risk to human settlements from climate change is flooding and landslides, driven by projected increases in rainfall intensity and, in coastal areas, sea level rise. (IPCC)(2)
The intensity and frequency of rainfall has increased in various regions of the world whilst the distribution of rainfall has also been affected with some territories receiving less rain whilst others receive substantially more.
Already unprecedented flooding has occurred in various regions of the world causing significant loss of human life and displacing millions of people from their homes in many countries including Bangladesh, China, India and Europe. See Disasters
Flooding has also resulted in more disease - warmer temperatures and increased rainfall encourage the spread of mosquitoes, which carry over 100 viruses that can infect humans such as malaria - Also flood waters combine with human waste, which reduces clean water resources. Cholera epidemics have ensued.

In 1993 128 million people were affected by floods in India.(Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance(OFDA)/Centre For Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster. (CRED))
In 1995 over 12 million people were affected by floods in Bangladesh and in 1998 over 15 million were affected. (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium)
154 million people were affected by floods in China in 1996 with 2,700 killed and a million homes destroyed. (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium)
In 1998 240 million people were affected by floods in China, over 3,656 people died, 14 million people were made homeless, 5 million homes were destroyed, 12 million homes were damaged. 25 million hectares of farmland were flooded and damages were estimated at over $20 bn. (NCDC/NOAA)
In previous centuries records show that severe flooding in China occurred once every 20 years - now such floods occur 9 out of every 10 years. (Worldwatch www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/ www.worldwatch.org )
In the UK nearly 8,000 homes were flooded in the Autumn of 2000 with 4 million homes at future risk. (Environment Agency UK)
Between 1991-2000 of the annual average of 211 million disaster victims world-wide, two thirds of these people were flood disaster victims, constituting an average of 139 million flood disaster victims each year. (IFRC/WDR2001)
The number of disaster victims increased by 43.5% during the decade 1991-2000 compared to 1981-1990. (IFRC)

Great Flood Disasters 1950 - 2003

	1950-59	1960-69	1970-79	1980-89	1990-99	1994-03	Factor 80's:60's	Factor last 10:60's
Number	6	6	8	18	26	16	3.0	2.7
Economic Losses	31	22	20	28	234	163	1.3	7.4
Insured Losses	-	0.24	0.41	1.52	8.39	8.02	6.3	33.3

Losses in bn.US$-2003 values

MRNatCatService C 2004 Geo Risk.Research Dept. Munich Re

Natural catastrophes are classed as 'great' if the ability of the region to help itself is distinctly overtaxed, making interregional or international assistance necessary. This is usually the case when thousands of people are killed, hundreds of thousands are made homeless, or when a country suffers substantial economic losses, depending on the economic circumstances generally prevailing in that country.

Part of the observed upward trend in disaster losses over the past 50 years is linked to socioeconomic factors such as population growth, increased wealth, and urbanization in vulnerable areas, and part is linked to climatic factors such as the observed changes in precipitation and flooding events. (IPPC)(3)

Number of People Affected Each Year On Average By Flood Disasters

Year	People Affected By Floods Per Year (Decade Average)
1961-70	6,964,106
1971-80	22,449,610
1981-90	54,222,303
1991-2000	148,944,435

Source : EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

As temperatures continue to rise the intensity and frequency of rainfall in certain parts of the world will increase so that the scale of flooding witnessed to date is likely to substantially escalate to the peril of people, species and crop yields.

Storms Cyclones & Hurricanes

c. 2001 Topham / UNEP

'The effects of climate change witnessed today are the result of greenhouse gases that were put into the atmosphere 30/40 years ago. (UKCIP02) If fossil fuel use stopped tomorrow temperatures would still rise by 1C and the full effect of the greenhouse gases emitted today would not be felt for another 30/40 years '

Changes globally in tropical and extra-tropical storm intensity and frequency are dominated by inter-decadal to multi-decadal variations, with no significant trends evident over the 20th century. Conflicting analyses make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about changes in storm activity, especially in the extra-tropics. (IPCC)(4)
The 1980's however were unusually warm and the 1990's still warmer. These periods have coincided with periods of unusually strong winds such as those experienced in western Europe in 1987 when 15 million trees were blown down in south-east England and London. This storm also hit Northern France, Belgium and Holland and was the worst storm since 1703. (Houghton)
In other parts of the world the damage has been even greater - over 10,000 people died and approx 5 million people were affected when Hurricane Mitch struck in 1998. 20% of Honduras' population were made homeless, villages were swept away, 70-80% of the transport infrastructure was destroyed and 70% of crops. In Nicaragua 750,000 people lost their homes. (NCDC/NOAA)

The insurance industry has acknowledged the increase in storm intensity in recent years. It was rare to experience storms causing more than a billion dollar in insured losses before the mid 1980's. But the storms that hit western Europe in 1987 began a series of windstorm disasters that made $10bn losses regular occurrences. Hurricane Andrew caused $16 bn estimated insured losses. (Houghton)
Global economic losses from catastrophic events increased 7.3 fold from $75.5bn in the 1960s to $550.9bn in the 1990's (adjusted for inflation). The insured portion of these losses rose 13.9 fold from US$6.1bn to $84.5 bn during the same period. (Munich Re 2003)
Part of the observed upward trend in disaster losses over the past 50 years is linked to socioeconomic factors such as population growth, increased wealth, and urbanization in vulnerable areas, and part is linked to climatic factors such as the observed changes in precipitation and flooding events. (IPPC)(5)
However the frequency and severity of such disasters has increased during the past three decades as the table below indicates:

Great Windstorm Disasters 1950 - 2003

	1950-59	1960-69	1970-79	1980-89	1990-89	1994-03	Factor 80's:60's	Factor last 10:60's
No. of Windstorms	7	10	19	21	42	26	2,1	2,6
Economic Losses $USbn	11.1	32.9	51.7	54.1	189.9	97.4	1.6	3.0
Insured Losses $USbn	0	5.9	11.7	21	82.9	43.3	3.6	7.4

Losses in bn.US$-2003 values

MRNatCatService C 2004 Geo Risk.Research Dept. Munich Re

If the devastation caused through windstorms has increased insured losses ten fold since the 1950's based on a 0.6C rise in temperature - What scale of devastation would occur if temperatures rose up to a global average of 5.8C, which would constitute almost TEN TIMES the current increase?

92% of insured losses are paid to those in the developed world (Munich Re) albeit the majority of disasters occur in the developing world, which means that it is the poorest people who are already struggling to survive that have no insurance when their homes or livelihoods are swept away ....

Decade Summary Of Number of People Affected Each Year On Average by Windstorm Disasters

Year	People Affected By Windstorms Per Year (Decade Average)
1961-70	3,061,200
1971-80	6,610,115
1981-90	14,045,844
1991-2000	24,418,544

Source : EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

This means that between the 1960's and the 1990's the number of people increased 8 fold and every decade the number affected approximately doubled.

Oceans

Together with the sun the oceans drive the planet's climate :

Oceans are an integral part of the climate system - for example there is a correlation between the sea's surface temperature and the intensity and speed of hurricanes (Gore) - As the oceans warm and continue to warm significantly great changes will be instigated both within the depths of the ocean and with our climate.
Global ocean heat content has increased since the late 1950's, the period for which adequate observations of sub-surface ocean temperatures have been available. (IPCC)(6) The heat content of the upper 300m of the world's oceans has warmed by an average of 0.3+ 0.15C between the mid-1950's and 1998. Extension of the analysis to the upper 3,000 m shows that similar changes in heat content have occurred over intermediate and deep waters, especially in the North and South Atlantic and the South Indian Oceans. Recent surveys of the Arctic Ocean reveal that its sub-surface water is up to 1C warmer. (NODC/NOAA)
Global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 metres during the 20th century. (IPCC)(7) See Sea Level Rise.
Marine ecosystems have been and will be detrimentally affected by global warming reducing fish populations and significantly affecting fish-dependent human societies - Accelerated coastal erosion is occurring and loss of coral reefs, atolls, reef islands, wetlands, salt marshes and mangrove forests with associated losses of species within these habitats.
As the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere increases, ocean and land will take up a decreasing fraction of anthropogenic (produced by human activity) CO2 emissions. (IPCC)(8) this will further increase the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
At present there is approximately fifty times more CO2 contained in the oceans as exists in the atmosphere. Only a 2% reduction of CO2 absorption by the sea would result in a DOUBLING of CO2 in the atmosphere which could cause temperatures to rise significantly. (Gore)
The oceans thermal movement of warm water to the Poles and cold water from the Poles back towards the equator is being affected by global warming. The cold water flowing south under the Gulf Stream from the Arctic has been reduced by 20% since 1950 and is decreasing by approx 2-4% pa (Marine Laboratory Aberdeen). If the Gulf Stream were to shut down it could plunge Britain into a Little Ice Age, similar to that which gripped the country between 1550 and 1850 (Gore) and which regularly froze the River Thames.
The IPCC affirms that beyond 2100 the ocean thermohaline circulation could completely and possibly irreversibly shut down in either hemisphere. (9) The last time this happened it caused a return to ice age conditions with 1km of ice over New York. (Gore)
As the oceans warm they threaten the world's coral reefs - 27% of the world's coral has already been lost - 16% of this within 9 months alone with the largest single cause being climate related coral bleaching. 58% of the world's coral reefs are further threatened. ( UNEP )

Another danger from the warming oceans is that methane, which is twenty one times as powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2, (IPCC) was trapped over thousands of years ago, as methane hydrate, a type of crystal, and now lies on the shallow floor of the Arctic, in sediments below the seabed. 10,000 bn tonnes of methane is stored here. (US Geological Survey) If the temperature surrounding the methane hydrate warms, it becomes unstable and methane gas is released. The amount stored, if released, could cause temperatures to spiral. (Leggett)

Sea Level Rise

Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 metres between 1990 and 2100 ..This is due primarily to thermal expansion (warmer water expands) and loss of mass from glaciers and ice caps. (IPCC)(10)
With one third of humanity living within 60 km of coastline (Tickell) the consequences of rising sea levels are severe for those living in coastal zones around the world.
Bangladesh, India, Egypt, Gambia, Indonesia, Mozambique, Pakistan, Senegal, Surinam, Thailand, China, The Maldives and other Indian and Pacific islands, Florida, parts of the Netherlands and vulnerable delta regions especially in south-east Asia and Africa are territories likely to be devastated by sea waters encroaching this century. (Gore)
A substantial amount of agricultural land will be lost to the sea. This is critical for many countries such as Bangladesh where half of the country's economy comes from agriculture and 85% of the nation's population depends on agriculture for its livelihood. (Houghton)
Sea level rise also impacts on freshwater resources as salt water intrudes into fresh groundwater - A one to three metre rise in sea level this century will have a significant effect on fresh water supplies.

If greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilised (even at present levels) sea level would nonetheless continue to rise for hundreds of years. (IPCC)(11)
A one metre rise in sea level would inundate 6% of the Netherlands, 17.5% of Bangladesh and approx 80% of Atoll Majuro in the Marshall Islands. (UN FCCC)
7% of Bangladesh's habitable land with a population of 6 million is less than a metre above sea level, and about 25% with a 30 million population is below the 3m level. Estimates of sea-level rise affecting Bangladesh are of 1m by 2050 (30% global warming, 70% subsidence) and nearly 2m by 2100 (37% global warming, 63% subsidence). (Broadus,Warrick, Gregory).
In the Nile Delta of Egypt 7 million people and 12% of the country's arable land would be affected by a 1m rise of sea level which is expected by 2050, 2m by 2100. (Broadus,Warrick).
In China 30 million people currently live on China's eastern coastline which would be inundated by a half a metre rise in sea-level. (Houghton)
In the UK hundreds of acres of Britain's coastline are being abandoned to the sea as sea level rises by 6mm per year along some stretches of the coast. 0.25% of the coastline of England and Wales is currently earmarked to be surrendered to the encroaching sea whilst by 2010 this may increase to between 2% to 3%. (Guardian)
Flooding due to storm surges already affects 46 million people a year (UNFCC) Model-based projections of the mean annual number of people who would be flooded by coastal storm surges increase several fold (by 75 to 200 million people depending on adaptive responses) for mid-range scenarios of a 40-cm sea-level rise by the 2080's relative to scenarios with no sea-level rise. (IPCC)(12) Sea level could however rise by more than twice this amount this century.
Ice sheets will continue to react to climatic changes during the next several thousand years, even if the climate is stabilised. Together, the present Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets contain enough water to raise sea level by almost 70m if they were to melt, so that only a small fractional change in their volume would have a significant effect. (IPCC)(13)

With one third of the world's population living within 60 km of coastline unprecedented suffering will occur as sea level rises inundating tens of millions of people in this and future centuries.

Ice Caps & Glaciers

Antartica has warmed by 2.5C in the last 50 years. (British Antarctic Survey)
There has been a widespread retreat of mountain glaciers in non-polar regions during the 20th century - Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea ice extent has decreased by 10 to 15% since the 1950's. It is likely that there has been about a 40% decline in Arctic sea-ice thickness during the late summer to early autumn in recent decades and a considerably slower decine in winter sea-ice thickness. (IPCC)(14)
The Earth's ice cover is melting in more places and at higher rates than at any time since record keeping began and it accelerated during the 1990's which was also the warmest decade on record. (Worldwatch www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/ www.worldwatch.org )
Outside the poles most ice melt has occurred in mountain and sub- polar glaciers. Wildlife is already suffering, particularly at the poles. In northern Canada polar bears are reported to be suffering hunger and weight loss. In Antarctica loss of sea ice, rising temperatures and increased precipitation is altering habitats and feeding and breeding patterns of penguins and seals. ( Worldwatch www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/ www.worldwatch.org)

Climate models indicate that the local warming over Greenland is likely to be one to three times the global average. (IPCC)(15)
Ice sheet models project that a local warming of larger than 3C, if sustained for milleninia, would lead to virtually a complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a resulting sea level rise of about 7 metere. A local warming of 5.5C, if sustained for 1,000 years, would be likely to result in a contribution from Greenland of about 3 metres to sea level rise. (IPCC)(16)
The Antarctic ice cover which averages 2.3 km in thickness (representing approx 91% of Earth's ice) is melting. In the past decade three ice shelves have fully disintegrated - the Wordie, The Larsen A and the Prince Gustav. The Wilkin is in full retreat. Ice bergs the size of Delaware have also broken off Antartica in recent years. (Worldwatch www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/ www.worldwatch.org )
Since 1992 the Pine Island glacier has lost 31 cubic km of ice and it has retreated over 5 km inland as a consequence of the thinning. (British Antarctic Survey)
Current ice dynamic models suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet could contribute up to 3 metres to sea level rise over the next 1,000 years, but such results are strongly dependent on model assumptions regarding climate change scenarios, ice dynamics and other factors. (IPCC)(17)
There is a 5% chance that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could collapse in the next 200 years that could raise sea level by about 5m over several centuries. (British Antarctic Survey)
In March 2002 the Antarctic Larsen B ice sheet - 2000m thick and with a surface area of 3250 km2 broke apart in less than a month causing 500 billion tonnes of ice to fragment into smaller ice bergs (BBC)

Examples of Ice Melt Around the World

Name	Location	Measured Loss
Arctic Sea Ice	Arctic	Has shrunk by 6% since 1978, with 14% loss of thicker, year-round ice. Has thinned by 40% in less than 30 years
Greenland Ice Sheet	Greenland	Has thinned by more than a metre a year on its southern and eastern edges since 1993.
Columbia Glacier Alaska	United States	Retreated nearly 13 km since 1982. In 1999, retreat rate increased from 25m per day to 35m per day.
Glacier National Park	Rocky Mtns.US	Since 1850, the number of glaciers have dropped from 150 to fewer than 50. Remaining glaciers could disappear completely in 30 years.
Antarctic Sea	Southern Ocean	Ice to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula decreased by 20% between 1973-1993, and continues to decline.
Pine Island Glacier	West Antarctic	Grounding line retreated 1.2 km a year from 1992-1996. Ice thinned at a rate of 3.5 m per year.
Tasman Glacier	New Zealand	Terminus has retreated 3 km since 1971, and main front has retreated 1.5 km since 1982. Thinned by up to 200m on average since the 1971-82 period. Icebergs began to break off in 1991, accelerating the collapse.
Meren, Carstenz, and Northwall Firn Glaciers	Irian Jaya, Indonesia	Rate of retreat increased to 45m pa in 1995, up from 30m pa in 1936. Glacial area shrank by some 84% between 1936 and 1995. Meren Glacier is now close to disappearing altogether.
Dokriani Bamak Glacier	Himalayas, India	Retreated by 20m in 1998 compared with an average retreat of 16.5 m over previous 5 years.
Duosuogang Peak	Ulan Ula Mtns,China	Glaciers have shrunk by 60% since the early 1970s.
Tien Shan Mtns	Central Asia	22% of glacial ice volume has disappeared in past 40 years.
Caucasus Mtns	Russia	Glacial volume has declined by 50% in the past century.
Alps	Western Europe	Glacial area has shrunk by 35 to 40% and volume has declined by more than 50% since 1850. Glaciers could be reduced to only a small fraction of their present mass within decades.
Mt. Kenya	Kenya	Largest glacier has lost 92% of its mass since the late 1800s.
Speka Glacier	Uganda	Retreated by more than 150m between 1977-1990, compared with only 35-45m between 1958 and 1977.
Upsala Glacier	Argentina	Has retreated 60m a year on average over the last 60 years, and rate is accelerating.
Quelccaya Glacier	Andes	Rate of retreat increased to 30m pa in the 1990s, up from only 3m pa between the 1970s and 1990.

(Source: Worldwatch Institute 2001)

When this ice and snow melts exposing land and water, less solar heat is reflected back into space. The solar heat is now absorbed by the exposed land and water surfaces so that the atmosphere is warmed further, which further melts the ice and snow. Ice absorbs less than half the sunlight that falls on it, but ocean surfaces absorb about 90% . (Monastersky, Worldwatch )

So the more ice melts due to global warming - the more of the sun's heat is absorbed by the Earth's surfaces, leading to increased global warming . It is an escalating cycle (a positive feedback) and cause for great concern.

Ice sheets will continue to react to climate warming and contribute to sea level rise for thousands of years after climate has been stabilised. (IPCC)(18)

Water, Drought & Famine

c. 1999 Topham Picturepoint The former UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali stated that
"The next war in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics."

The global water cycle is a fundamental part of our climate system.

70.8% of the Earth's surface is ocean and when inland seas, lakes, glaciers and polar ice caps are included 74.35% of the planet's surface is covered in water.

More than 97% of the planet's water is salty. Of the freshwater sources more than 90% is locked away in glaciers and ice sheets or deep underground. Only about 0.0001% of fresh water is accessible. (Suzuki)

Global warming is changing the availability of fresh water - In some parts of the world the distribution of rainfall will alter with some regions receiving less rain - This will be further exacerbated by the fact that as temperatures increase a higher percentage of rainfall will evaporate on the Earth's surface. This is already leading to additional droughts, famine and increased desertification.
The dramatic increase in famine in Ethiopia, the Sudan and Somalia coincides with a dramatic shift in rainfall which has moved from these areas and the Middle East to a proportionate increase in Europe. It has caused severe drought and famine. (Science)
The increased lack of rain in certain regions of the world due to climate change only adds to other water supply problems such as increased per capita demand, population growth and the sharing of water supplies between different countries.
In the last 70 years global water use has increased six-fold (UN) and with substantial population growth demand will only increase. And yet more and more water stored over hundreds of thousands of years in underground aquifers is being extracted at rates that exceed Nature's capacity to refill them. In Mexico City the main aquifer's water level is dropping by eleven feet a year and in Beijing the water table is dropping annually by six and half feet. (Gore)
Global warming, leading to reduced water supplies in many regions of the world, will further heighten tensions between countries who share their water sources. Approx half the global land area is within water basins which fall between two or more countries. 44 countries have at least 80% of their land areas falling within such basins. The Nile for example passes through 9 countries which use its water, the Ganges-Bramaputra through 5. As populations increase and global warming reduces rainfall in some regions water scarcity may become a major cause of conflict. (Houghton)
Global warming and climate change is also affecting the world's drylands which account for approx 40% of the total land surface and are prone to land degradation due to decreased vegetation, less water, a reduction of crop yields and soil erosion largely the result of excessive land use due to increased demand and population growth. More than 40% of Africa's population live in the susceptible drylands and equivalent numbers account for Asia and South America. Climate change could have a crucial impact on land degradation which is vulnerable to any future reductions in rainfall and increase in temperatures. ( UNEP )
Farmers in the developed world may get access to heat and drought tolerant crops however in the developing world many farmers with little access to new species will struggle to survive.

In the last 70 years global water use has increased six fold.
World population is projected to increase from approx 6.1 billion today to approx 9 billion by 2050 (UN) - 3 billion more people will want water - much of the increase is in the developing countries.
However global warming will significantly reduce rainfall in certain regions of the world.
Already Israel's Gaza Strip with a population of approx 750,000 is facing a water 'catastrophe'. (Gore)
Egypt, with a population of over 55 million people, who rely almost exclusively on the Nile for drinking water, will have a population of at least 100 million by 2030. Yet the Nile will have even less water then due to increasing population growth upstream in Ethiopia and Sudan. (Gore)
Africa is to be one of the hardest hit by water scarcity - A change in the hydrographs of large basins (Niger, Lake Chad and Senegal) has been observed. Between the mean annual discharge of the humid and drought periods, the percentage of reduction varies from 40 to 60%. (IPCC)(19)
By 2025 the number of countries experiencing water stress in Africa will rise to 18 - affecting 600 million people. (World Bank)
Drylands cover approx 40% of the total land area of the world and support over one fifth of the world's population. Approx one sixth of these drylands are already hyper-arid deserts. (Houghton/The World Environment)
Desertification is increasing at a rate of approx 60,000 km2 each year or about 0.1% per year of the total drylands. (The World Environment) Approx 70% of drylands are threatened by desertification - over 25% of the world's land area. (Houghton)
250 million people are directly affected by desertification and the lives of one sixth of the world's population, one billion people, are at risk. ( UNEP )
Deforestation's ability to reduce rainfall is also significant - Numerical models indicate rainfall may decrease by approx 15% if the forest north of 30S in South America were removed and replaced by grassland. (Lean, Rowntree) Similar experiments for Zaire indicate an average reduction in rainfall of over 30%. (Mylne,Rowntree)
Ethiopia represents a tragic example of the loss of forests and then water - the amount of its forested land has decreased from 40% to 1% in the last four decades. Concurrently the amount of rainfall has declined to the point where the country is rapidly becoming a wasteland and famine is pronounced. (Gore)
42 million people on average each year were affected by famine during the decade 1991-2000. (IFRC/World Disasters Report 2001) 43.5% more people were affected by disasters this decade than in the previous one. (WDR)
Spreading water shortages threaten to reduce the global food supply by more than 10%. (Worldwatch www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/ www.worldwatch.org )
The United Nations estimate that by 2025 5 billion people world-wide could be suffering water stress.
The former UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali stated that "The next war in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics."

Global warming and climate change will increase drought famine and water scarcity as temperatures rise, causing hunger, death, displacement and likely conflict in the decades ahead.

Ecosystems

c.Soo Wee Ming UNEP

'Climate change is causing an unprecedented loss of species due to increased temperatures and loss of habitat. Once lost they are gone forever.

Just over 10% of the world's land area is under cultivation.The rest is largely unmanaged by humans. Of this 30% is natural forest. The plants and animals which constitute a local ecosystem are highly sensitive to the climate and to the type of soil and water availability. As climate changes it alters the suitability of a region for different species and so long term will lead to substantial changes in the composition of an ecosystem. (Houghton)

Global warming is causing changes in climate over a few decades so that most ecosystems can not respond or migrate as quickly. This will result in natural ecosystems becoming increasingly unmatched to their environment. (Houghton) Some species will adapt, others may migrate and others will become extinct.

Ecosystems are subject to many pressures (eg land-use change, resource demands, population changes); their extent and pattern of distribution is changing, and landscapes are becoming more fragmented. Climate change constitutes an additional pressure that could change or endanger ecosystems and the many goods and services they provide. (IPCC)(20)
One estimate projects that if CO2 concentration doubles in the atmosphere up to 65% of the current boreal forested area could be affected. (IPCC)(21)
Recent estimates indicate that 25% of the world's mammals and 12% of birds are at significant risk of global extinction. Climate change is only one of a long list of pressures on wildlife. (IPCC)(22)
Many marine ecosystems are sensitive to climate change...Many coastal areas will experience increased levels of flooding, accelerated coastal erosion, loss of wetlands and mangroves, and seawater intrusion into freshwater sources as a result of climate change. (IPCC)(23)
Species of animals, birds, insects, marine life, vegetation and trees will become extinct unable to survive as their natural habitats are damaged and disappear -

Climate change is starting to have observable effects on wildlife and the predicted future impact of climate change is expected to be large. The immediate principal current threat to the world's wildlife is habitat conversion. ( UNEP )
Coral reefs are threatened and are home to thousands of species which may also die as the coral is lost through warming oceans. 27% of the world's coral has already been lost - 16% of this within 9 mths alone with the largest single cause being climate related coral bleaching. 58% of the world's coral reefs are further threatened. ( UNEP )
Reefs harbour 25% of all the world's fish species whilst 20% of all animal protein consumed by humans comes from the sea. Reefs provide fish and seafood for one billion people in Asia alone, many of whom are among the planet's more impoverished citizens. (WRI)
Like reefs, rainforests harbour much of the planet's wealth of species and are being rapidly degraded by humans. Climate change is already affecting these ecosystems and will do so increasingly as temperatures continue to rise.
Nearly 75% of all threatened bird species are found in forests (Stattersfield et al., 1998), and tropical forests are the most species- rich terrestrial habitats. An estimated 90% of the world's species occur in moist tropical forests, which cover only 8% of the land area. ( UNEP , 2000)
Climate change is now an additional pressure on the world's remaining forests since a significant proportion of trees this century will be subject to unsuitable climate conditions. (Houghton)
If CO2 levels double up to 65% of the current boreal forest area may be affected. (Miko)
In Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas the warmer, drier conditions caused by climate change would result in a decline and die-back of the forested part of the regions and would reduce timber mass in the forest by 10% over twenty years. (DOE/US/Bowes,Sedjo)