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Disasters If temperatures increase by up to 5.8C by 2100, this would be almost TEN TIMES the increase of 0.6C that has occurred in the last 100 years. It is impossible to estimate the scale of catastrophes that could occur to our world and its peoples - |
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c. UNEP /Topham Picturepoint |
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Disasters Overview
Increase In Disasters
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Things appear to be getting worse in two ways: natural disasters appear to be becoming more frequent and their effects more severe. (WEO2000) UNEP
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The number of great natural catastrophes has almost tripled since the 1960s, increasing the overall cost to the world's economies 7.3 fold, and the cost to the insurance industry 13.9 fold between the 1960's and 1993-2002. (Munich Re 2003)
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The number of disasters has increased more than four fold since the 1960's from an average 44 disasters each year in the 1960's to an average 181 disasters each year in the 1990's. (EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium)
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The 1990's decade saw 86 major natural catastrophes, including floods, earthquakes and hurricanes, that required outside assistance because of extensive deaths. By contrast, there were only 20 such events in the 1950s and 47 in the 1970s. (Worldwatch www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/ www.worldwatch.org )
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Since the 1960's, the number of windstorms have increased five fold and the number of floods have increased almost six fold. (OFDA/CRED Data)
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Hydro-meteorological disasters (drought, windstorms and floods) have caused 90% of the total number of natural disasters reported in the 1990's. (IFRC/WDR2001)
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1998 was the hottest year on record and produced more than 700 'large loss events' compared with between 530 and 600 during previous recent years. The most frequent natural catastrophes were windstorms (240) and floods (170), which accounted for 85% of the total economic losses. (Munich Re 1998)
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Higher temperatures add to the heat energy that fuels thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hurricanes. (Worldwatch www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/ www.worldwatch.org ) Gerhard Berz of Munich Re recently said, "A further advance in man-made climate change will almost invariably bring us increasingly extreme natural events and consequently increasingly large catastrophe losses."
The Human Cost -
Fatalities
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Deaths from natural disasters fell from nearly 2 million in the 1970's to just under 800,000 in the 1990's due to better preparedness. However these figures do not reflect global discrepancies for apart from Africa and Europe, where the number of people, who died from natural disasters fell during these periods, through the rest of the world substantial increases in fatalities were reported in the past two decades. In Oceania deaths tripled from one decade to the next, while in Asia deaths increased 41% and in the Americas increased 32%. (IFRC/WDR2002)
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From 1991-2000 two-thirds of those killed came from countries of low human development, while just 2% came from highly developed countries. (IFRC/WDR2001)
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Of those killed by natural disasters 83% were Asians. (IFRC/WDR2001)
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During the past decade over 90% of those killed by natural disasters lost their lives in hydro-meterorological events such as droughts, windstorms and floods. (IFRC/WDR2001)
The Human Cost - The
Number Of People Affected
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Between 1981-1990 an average of 147 million people each year were affected by disasters. Between 1991-2000 (the decade with the warmest years on record) an average of 211 million people each year were affected by disasters - an increase of 43.5% on the previous decade. (IFRC/WDR2001)
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Floods accounted for 68% of the annual average of 211 million people affected by natural disasters in the 1990's whilst famine affected 18% and windstorms 12%. (IFRC/WDR) Floods, droughts and windstorms accounted for 98% of all people affected by disasters.
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Weather related disasters have been the most prevalent in the past 10 years. Drought/ famine accounted for 82% of all those affected in Africa, 48% in Oceania and 35% in the Americas. Floods accounted for 69% of those affected in Asia. Windstorms accounted for 36% of those affected in the Americas and 33% of those affected in Europe. (IFRC/WDR2002)
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The number of people affected in the Pacific Islands/Oceania region by weather related disasters has soared 65 fold over the past 30 years. Cyclones, droughts and floods threaten to make life unbearable for the people, who live on many islands, long before rising sea level inundates them. (IFRC/WDR2002)
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More disasters were reported for 2000 than in any year over the last decade - 256 million people were affected by disasters well above the decades average. (IFRC/WDR2001)
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90% of those affected by disasters live in Asia, whilst just 2% live in nations of high human development. (IFRC/WDR2001)
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Populations in developing countries are much more affected by extreme events. Relative to low socioeconomic conditions, the impact of weather-related disasters in poor countries may be 20-30 times larger than in industrialized countries. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC))(1)
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The number of people affected by disasters since the 1960's has increased almost nine fold from 23 million people affected each year on average in the 1960's to 206 million people affected each year in the 1990's - an increase of almost 800%.
(OFDA/CRED Data) -
The number of people affected by windstorms has increased over five fold from 11 million people affected each year on average in the 1960's to 57 million people affected each year on average in the 1990's. (OFDA/CRED Data)
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The number of people affected by floods has increased over twenty-one fold from 7 million people affected each year on average in the 1960's to 149 million people affected each year on average in the 1990's. (OFDA/CRED Data)
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Many factors are considered responsible for the increase in the number of people affected by disasters - there are more people in urban and slum areas and in the path of disasters, traditional methods of coping with disasters previously are being eroded as families fragment and communities disperse and environmental degradation is also increasing the negative effects of floods, windstorms and droughts. (IFRC/WDR2002)
The Financial
Cost
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Global economic losses from great catastrophic events increased 7.3 fold from US$75.5bn in the 1960's to US$550.9bn between 1993-2002 (adjusted for inflation). The insured portion of these losses rose 13.9 fold from US$6.1bn to US$84.5bn (adjusted for inflation) over the same period. (Munich Re 2003)
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The number of natural catastrophes have almost tripled since the 1960. (Munich Re)
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In the 1990s, natural catastrophes like hurricanes, floods, and fires affected more than two billion people and caused in excess of $608 billion in economic losses worldwide - a loss greater than during the previous four decades combined and about five times the figure in the 1970s and 15 times the total for the 1950s. (Worldwatch www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/ www.worldwatch.org )
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The ten warmest years on record globally have now occurred since 1990 including each year since 1997. (UK Met Office 2004)
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50% of the insured losses in the past 40 years were due to natural catastrophes which occurred since 1990. (ReInsurance Association of America)
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In the period 1985-99, the vast majority of insured losses - some 92% were in industrial nations (Worldwatch www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/ www.worldwatch.org ). The majority of people affected by disasters however are in the developing world where few people have insurance when their homes or businesses are flooded or destroyed.
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The increasing toll of claims has already raised premiums and made it difficult to obtain insurance in disaster-prone areas such as the Caribbean. (Worldwatch www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/ www.worldwatch.org )
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From 1991-2000 natural catastrophes reportedly cost an estimated US$78.7 billion per annum (2000 prices). (IFRC/WDR2001)
Munich Re Great Flood Disasters 1950-2003
Flood disasters are classified as 'great' if the ability of the region to help itself is distinctly overtaxed, making interregional or international assistance necessary.
| 1950-59 | 1960-69 | 1970-79 | 1980-89 | 1990-99 | 1994-03 | Factor 80's:60's |
Factor last 10:60's |
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| Number | 6 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 26 | 16 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| Economic Losses | 31 | 22 | 20 | 28 | 234 | 163 | 1.3 | 7.4 |
| Insured Losses | 0 | 0.24 | 0.41 | 1.52 | 8.39 | 8.02 | 6.3 | 33.4 |
Losses in bn.US$-2003 values
MRNatCatService C 2004 Geo Risk.Research Dept. Munich Re
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Part of the observed upward trend in disaster losses over the past 50 years is linked to socioeconomic factors, such as population growth, increased wealth, and urbanization in vulnerable areas, and part is linked to climatic factors such as the observed changes in precipitation and flooding events. (IPCC)(2)
Disasters Data
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
Since 1988 the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) has been maintaining an Emergency Events Database - EM-DAT, which was created with the initial support of the World Health Organisation and the Belgian Government. The main objective of the database is to serve the purposes of humanitarian action at national and international levels. EM-DAT contains essential core data on the occurrence and effects of over 12,500 mass disasters in the world from 1900 to present. The database is compiled from various sources, including UN agencies, non-governmental organisations, insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies.
The EM-DAT data is included in the Human Development Report (UNDP) and the World Health Report (WHO) as well as other international reports including The World Disasters Report (International Federation of the Red Cross publication with data also drawn from the US Committe for Refugees (USCR) The WDR data slightly varies to the EM-DAT data since it also uses USCR data and the OFDA/CRED data has been recently been updated and further validated).
From 1990 almost all the disasters that have occurred around the world are included if they satisfy the EM-DAT disaster criteria (10 deaths and/or 100 affected and/or call for international assistance and/or declaration of state of emergency). In addition, CRED have recently enhanced their data from 1975, which data is considered to accurately reflect validated data for the last 26 years of disasters that have occurred around the world.
EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em.dat.net/ - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium-
The summaries and conclusions below have been compiled by Our World Foundation using the EM-DAT data. with CRED's approval.
1. Number of Disasters 1961-2001
See DataDecade Summary of The Average Number of Disasters Each Year -
| Year | Average Number of Disasters Per Year (Decade Average) |
| 1961-70 | 44 |
| 1971-80 | 65 |
| 1981-90 | 115 |
| 1991-2000 | 181 |
Disasters have increased more than 4 fold in number since the 1960's -
2. Number of Drought, Windstorm & Flood Disasters 1961-2000
See DataDecade Summaries Of The Number of Drought, Windstorm and Flood Disasters Per Year (Decade Average (Dec Av) -
| Year | No. of Droughts pa (Dec Av) |
No. of
Windstorms pa (Dec Av) |
No. of Floods
pa (Dec Av) |
| 1961-70 |
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| 1971-80 |
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| 1981-90 |
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| 1991-2000 |
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Windstorms have increased over 5 fold in number between the 1960's and 1990's, whilst floods have increased almost 6 fold in number between these decades. The number of droughts show no evident trend between these decades -
3. Number of People Killed by Disasters 1961-2000
See DataThe number of people killed by disasters each year on average in the 1990's has decreased by more than 80% since the 1960's -
| Year | Number of People Killed Per Year (Decade Average) |
| 1961-70 | 207,939 |
| 1971-80 | 98,591 |
| 1981-90 | 77,867 |
| 1991-2000 | 37,635 |
The number of people killed by disasters since the 1960's has decreased by more than 80% -
4. Number of People Affected by Disasters 1961-2000
See DataDecade Summary of The Average Number of People Affected By Disasters Each Year -
| Year | Number of People Affected By Disasters per Year (Decade Average) |
| 1961-70 |
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| 1971-80 |
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| 1981-90 |
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| 1991-2000 |
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5. Number of People Affected by Drought 1961-2000
See DataDecade Summary Of The Average Number of People Affected Each Year by Drought Disasters -
| Year | Number of People Affected
By Drought Per Year (Decade
Average) |
| 1961-70 |
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| 1971-80 |
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| 1981-90 |
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| 1991-2000 |
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6. Number of People Affected by Windstorms 1961-2000
See DataDecade Summary of The Average Number of People Affected Each Year by Windstorm Disasters -
| Year | Number of People Affected
By Windstorms Per Year (Decade
Average) |
| 1961-70 |
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| 1971-80 |
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| 1981-90 |
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| 1991-2000 |
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7. Number of People Affected by Floods 1961-2000
See DataDecade Summary of The Average Number of People Affected Each Year by Flood Disasters -
| Year | Number of People Affected By Floods Per Year (Decade Average) |
| 1961-70 |
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| 1971-80 |
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| 1981-90 |
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| 1991-2000 |
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8. Disasters Summary
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Category |
1960's Yearly Av. |
1990's Yearly Av. |
Increase (Incr)/(Decr) From 60-1990's |
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Number of Natural Disasters |
44 | 181 |
Approx 4.5 fold |
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Number of People Killed |
207,939 | 37,635 |
(Approx 80% decr) |
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Number of People Affected |
23,311,610 | 206,899,343 |
Approx 9 fold |
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Number of Droughts |
7 | 12 |
No evident trend |
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Number of People Affected by Drought |
12,303,985 | 34,806,039 |
Approx 3 fold |
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Number of Windstorms |
11 | 57 |
Approx 5 fold |
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Number of People Affected by Windstorms |
3,061,200 | 24,418,544 |
Approx 8 fold |
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Number of Floods |
13 | 76 |
Approx 6 fold |
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Number of People Affected by Floods |
6,964,106 | 148,944,435 |
Approx 21 fold |
The number of people affected by disasters each year on average has increased almost 9 fold between the 1960's and the 1990's -
This means that in the 1990's an average 183 million extra people each year are affected by natural disasters as compared to the 1960's.
The number of people affected by drought on average each year has increased almost 3 fold between the 1960's to the 1990's -
The number of people affected by windstorms on average each year has approximately doubled each decade - an approx 100% increase every ten years -
The number of people affected by windstorms on average each year has increased over 8 fold between the 1960's and the 1990's -
The number of people affected by floods on average each year has increased approximately 3 fold every decade - an approx 200% increase every ten years -
The number of people affected by floods on average each year has increased 21 fold between the 1960's and the 1990's -
In the 1990's an extra 183 million people each year on average were affected by disasters as were affected in the 1960's.
DISASTER GRAPH TRENDS
1. Number of Disasters Reported
2. Number of People Killed In Natural Disasters Reported
3. Number of People Affected In Natural Disasters Reported
4. Number of Natural Disasters By Region
5. Number of People Killed In Natural Disasters By Region
6. Number of People Affected In Natural Disasters By Region
7. Number of Natural Disasters by Disaster Type
8. Number of People Killed by Disaster Type
9. Number of People Affected by Disaster Type
NatCatservice
NatCatservice is a product that Munich Re launched in 1974. It is considered to be one of the best databases for natural catastrophes anywhere in the world today. It contains more than 20,000 entries on material and human losses caused by natural catastrophes . Every year NatCatservice records and analyzes some 800 natural hazard events worldwide. At a time in which natural catastrophe losses are increasing markedly throughout the world, this data represents an important source for the insurance sector and international research institutions. Insurers around the world can access details and trends concerning the various types of loss event.
Such major institutions as the United Nations Organization , the World Bank, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Red Cross (IFRC) as well as universities, public authorities and environmenal organisations also use the data provided by NatCatservice as a basis for their work. www.munichre.com email: awirtz@munichre.com
Great Natural Catastrophes 1950 - 2003 (Type)
Flood disasters are classified as 'great' if the ability of the region to help itself is distinctly overtaxed, making interregional or international assistance necessary.
Great Natural Catastrophes 1950 - 2003 (Losses)
Great Natural Disasters Percentage Distribution Worldwide
Great Natural Disasters 1950-2003 Losses
MRNatCatService C 2005 Geo Risk.Research Dept. Munich Re
Great Weather Related Natural Disasters 1950-2003
MRNatCatService (c) 2005 Geo Risk.Research Dept. Munich Re
Great Weather Related Natural Catastrophes 1950-2003
Great Weather Disasters 1950-2003 Economic & Insured Losses
Global average temperatures have risen by 0.6C + or - 0.2C since the beginning of the 20th century. The rise in temperature correlates with increased disasters, that are now affecting on average more than an extra 183 million people each year in the 1990's compared to the 1960's. The rise in disasters has also significantly increased financial losses. Part of the observed upward trend in disaster losses over the past 50 years is linked to socioeconomic factors, such as population growth, increased wealth, and urbanization in vulnerable areas, and part is linked to climatic factors such as the observed changes in precipitation and flooding events.(IPCC)(3)
Listed below are just some of the disasters of the last decade affecting millions of people predominantly in the developing world - Some of the disasters are unprecedented in their severity.
This century however global average temperatures are projected to rise by up to almost TEN TIMES the current increase of 0.6C - by up to 5.8C by 2100.
It is hard to imagine the scale of human suffering and devastation that might be caused by such disasters being amplified ten times or more...
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