Our World Foundation

Climate Change Global Warming 'The burning of oil coal and gas for the world's energy including electricity and transport is causing global warming and climate change' Around our Earth is a relatively thin blanket of air - our atmosphere - the air on which we all depend - a mix of gases so definitive, balanced and stable that they have enabled life to develop on this planet. And yet since the beginning of the industrial era Man has been burning fossil fuels - oil coal and gas for the world's energy including electricity and transport, which has emitted billions of tonnes of 'greenhouse gases' - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and halocarbons into the atmosphere so beginning an unprecedented experiment with life on Earth.
	c. 2000 Topham / UNEP

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased by 31% since 1750. The present CO2 concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely not during the past 20 million years. The current rate of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1) This increase in CO2 traps more of the sun's heat in the atmosphere just like a greenhouse, causing our world's temperatures to rise.

The globally averaged surface temperature (the average of near surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature) has increased since 1861. Over the 20th century the increase has been 0.6C + or - 0.2C. New analyses of proxy data for the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years. (IPCC)(2)

In 1988 the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP ) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to study global warming and climate change. The IPPC, an international body of hundreds of leading scientists from developed and developing nations worldwide, has found that by 2100:

the global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4C to 5.8C (IPCC)(3)
it is very likely that nearly all land areas will warm more rapildy than the global average, particularly those at northern high latitudes in the cold season. Most notable of these is the warming in the northern regions of North America, and northern and central Asia, which exceeds global mean warming in each model by more than 40%. (IPCC)(4)
the local warming over Greenland is likely to be one to three times the global average. (IPCC)(5)
Global mean surface temperature increases and rising sea level from thermal expansion of the ocean are projected to continue for hundreds of years after stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations (even at present levels) owing to the long timescales on which the deep ocean adjusts to climate change.(IPCC)(6)

When temperatures became 6C colder it created an Ice Age with one kilometre of ice over New York - (Revelle,Gore)

What can be expected from a change of that size on the warm side?

Ice Age temperature changes took places over thousands of years -

The changes now projected may occur over a single lifetime ........

The primary cause of global warming and emission of these greenhouse gases is the burning and use of fossil fuels - oil, coal and gas, for the world's energy including electricity and transport.

About three-quarters of the anthropogenic (caused by humans) emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere during the past 20 years is due to fossil fuel burning. The rest is predominantly due to land-use change, especially deforestation. (IPCC)(7)There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. (IPCC)(8)

Of all the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) is the biggest contributor accounting for 60% of the greenhouse gases emitted by Man.

And every hour of every day everywhere we are pumping more and more green house gases into the limited blanket of air that surrounds our planet.

The atmosphere's balance of gases and temperature has been critical to life's success - this process is now being adversely affected with potentially catastrophic long term consequences.

Climate Change

c.Hinrich Baesemann UNEP

'Temperatures are likely to increase this century by a global average of 1.4 to 5.8C and may rise by 40% more than this over many land surface areas. Over Greenland temperatures may rise by one to three times the global average.'

Climate refers to the temperature, humidity, rainfall, winds, radiation, and other weather related conditions that are associated with a certain area or region over an extended period of time.

Climate involves not only the atmosphere, but also the atmosphere's close interaction with the oceans, the land surface, the cryosphere (ice masses of Antartica and Greenland as well as the North Polar sea ice and mountain glaciers) and the biosphere (the vegetation and other living systems on the land and in the ocean).

The warmth of the world's atmosphere directly affects the global climate - as the atmosphere's temperature rises due to global warming the world's climate and its interacting elements are affected resulting in :

a more intense global water cycle - causing an increase in the amount and frequency of rain that is resulting in heavy flooding in some regions. See Rainfall and Flooding

changes in the distribution of rainfall resulting in more rain in some areas whilst less rain falls in other areas.

an increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts in some regions such as Africa and parts of Asia. See Disasters

a likely 10% loss of the extent of snow cover since the late 1960's and a reduction of about two weeks in the annual length of time of lake and river ice cover in the northern Hemisphere.

a widespread retreat of mountain glaciers in non-polar regions during the 20th century. It is likely that there has been about a 40% decline in Arctic sea-ice thickness during late summer to early autumn in recent decades and a considerably slower decline in winter sea-ice thickness. (IPCC)(9)

global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2m during the 20th century. (IPCC)(10) Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 metres between 1990 and 2100.(IPCC)(11) See Oceans

an increase in the warmth of the oceans since the late 1950's which is when adequate records began. See Oceans

a weakening of the ocean thermohaline circulation which moves heat from the equator to the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and which warms Europe. Beyond 2100 this ocean circulation could completely and possibly irreversibly shut down in either hemisphere. The last time this occurred it caused a return to ice age conditions over Europe. (Gore) See Oceans

it is very likely that there has been a 2% increase in cloud cover over mid- to high latitude land areas during the 20th century (IPCC)(12) which can both cool and warm the surface.

Since 1950 it is very likely that there has been a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures, with a small increase in the frequency of extreme high temperatures.(IPCC)(13)

future climate changes may also involve 'surprises'. In particular these arise from the non-linear nature of the climate system. When rapidly forced, non-linear systems are especially subject to unexpected behaviour...Examples of such non-linear behaviour include rapid circulation changes in the North Atlantic and feedbacks associated with terrestial ecosystem changes. (IPCC)(14)

The climate system is a complex system of interacting elements - so that a change in the global temperature of the atmosphere caused by Man burning fossil fuels, affects the other elements of the climate system such as the oceans, which in turn respond and in so doing can increase temperatures further.

Climate is crucial to Man's existence and survival on this plant as it is for creatures and plant life - in disrupting, perhaps irreversibly, this critical life system we are endangering ourselves and our world.

The extent of damage or loss to our world will increase with the magnitude and rate of climate change. At present global average temperatures have risen by approx 0.6C since 1900 however temperatures could increase by a global average of 1.4C to 5.8C this century and up to 40% more than this over some land areas of the world.

And the warmer it gets the more likely it is to lead to rapid or 'surprise' changes - changes that may be truly unexpected and of a magnitude we have not yet experienced or imagined as Nature is thrown into disarray.